Obama and Mexico: Managing Incipient Chaos

Visiting Mexico City, President Barack Obama cited JFK's remark that "the bonds between our two countries cannot be broken."

Another country, another crisis. President Barack Obama summited yesterday in Mexico City with President Felipe Calderon, pledging to help Mexico's elected government beat back the challenge of powerful drug cartels that increasingly out-gun Mexican security forces. But Obama's measures will only manage the incipient chaos, not end it.

Which has actually long been typical of America's policies with regard to Mexico.

In his 1981 book "The Nine Nations of North America," author Joel Garreau referred to the Border Patrol as "a regulatory agency." In the sense that it was not set up to halt illegal immigration from Mexico but to manage it. To make it difficult enough to prevent an open border scenario, but not so difficult as to prevent American businesses from benefiting from the efficiencies of an influx of cheap labor, even as American social institutions struggled to provide services.

The dynamic was probably inevitable, with a poor nation sharing a 2,000-mile border with a rich nation.

Another inevitable dynamic is playing out between Mexico and America, which seized its Southwest from Mexico in the 19th century. Americans like to get loaded and/or high, whether it's with illegal drugs, legal alcohol, or prescription drugs. And we make a lot of guns.

Obama, appearing with Mexican President Felipe Calderon, announced a program to combat the drug cartels but won't move to reinstate the assault weapons ban.

Mexican drug cartels have taken the place of the famed old Columbian cartels in funneling illegal drugs into the US, where they're mostly distributed by American gangs. With the money they make in America, and the weapons they acquire in America -- about 90% of the weapons captured from cartel members by Mexican security forces come from the US -- the drug cartels have grown so powerful and bold that they threaten the government's hold on the country.

In the first presidential visit to Mexico City since 1996, Obama expressed his solidarity with the Mexican government's fight against the drug cartels. And he became the first to acknowledge the obvious, that this crisis exists because of the dynamic with America.

Obama visited Mexico, whose government is beset by powerful drug cartels fueled by Americans' appetite for illegal drugs and armed with American weapons.

"I will not pretend that this is Mexico's responsibility alone. Demand for these drugs in the United States is what is helping to keep these cartels in business," said Obama in a joint press conference with Calderon at Los Pinos, the Mexican presidential residence. But he made clear that his goal is to manage the chaos, by reducing the drug cartels to "a localized criminal problem, as opposed to a major structural problem that threatens stability in communities along those borders and that increases corruption and threatens the rule of law."

One way to cut the Mexican drug cartels down to size is to legalize drugs in America. After all, the end of Prohibition against liquor in the US was a huge setback for America's organized crime groups. Mexico's ambassador to the US suggested the legalization of marijuana last week. But Obama is not going to move to legalize marijuana, much less cocaine or heroin.

Another way to shrink the cartels' growing power is to largely eliminate the flow of weaponry to them. President Calderon has asked the US government to reinstate the assault weapons ban, noting that the cartels were not nearly so well-armed during it. Obama has backed away from a renewal of the assault weapons ban, which he supported as a candidate. The ban, which was championed by California Senator Dianne Feinstein and enacted under President Bill Clinton, was allowed to lapse during the Bush/Cheney years. It would take a real fight to get another assault weapons ban through Congress.

Mexico is beset by powerful drug cartels warring with one another and with agencies of the Mexican government.

So what is Obama doing in America to manage the chaos in Mexico? Mostly classic law enforcement actions, plus a more aggressive move against the guns short of the assault weapons ban.

For one thing, with more agents in the border areas, Obama is going after the linkages between the Mexican cartels and their American distributors.

For another, he is going after the cartels' money, targeting three big cartels as "significant foreign narcotics drug traffickers under U.S. law, clearing the way for our Treasury Department, together with Mexico, to freeze their assets and subject them to sanctions."

And he is going after the guns with promises of stepped-up enforcement of existing laws and a push to have the US Senate at last ratify a treaty adopted by virtually every other nation in the Hemisphere to control the export of firearms.

Will that be enough to manage Mexico's incipient chaos? Obama is evidently judging that it will be, at least for now. Perhaps more to the point, he is also evidently judging that he has higher priorities on his very expansive agenda on which to expend his political capital.

While these rather limited new initiatives from Obama work their way through the system, Mexico's government soldiers on against the cartels, with some additional military aid from the US. But the Calderon Administration is a minority government, with much of the population believing it was robbed in the election.

Mexico has had a stable, though decidedly one party, democracy for a very long time. The PRI, or Institutional Revolutionary Party, always won presidential elections until 2000. A part of its left wing split off in 1988 as the PRD. Party of the Democratic Revolution. By 2000, that was enough for Mexico's conservative party, the PAN, or National Action Party, to win the presidency.

In 2006, Calderon, the PAN candidate, eked out a very narrow over the PRD's Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, with only 35.9% of the vote. The results were bitterly challenged and millions of Mexicans took the streets in protest.

After televised brawls on the floor of the national Congress, Calderon was finally sworn in as president of Mexico. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, who attended the festivities, described the scene as "absolutely wild."

Needless to say, there were already some big cracks in Calderon's influence over the country.

Will Obama's moves help stabilize Mexico? They can't hurt. But I have a feeling this discussion is only just beginning.

You can check things during the day on my site, New West Notes ... www.newwestnotes.com.

 

Comments

[Coinyer101]

President Obama is making a huge, wasteful, mistake, on our southern border,and the nations south of there, by not ending prohibition. He has many wounds to heal, internationally, but, without the necessary changes ,here at home, concerning the drug trade, i fear he will make little progress. too many of our foreign problems , are caused, and used to our enemy’s benefit, because we are too stubborn to end the failed war on drugs , right here at home, or we consider it a ‘laughing’ matter.

this opinion applies to afghanista­n/pakistan­, as well as many asian nations, in my opinion, too.

[BottomLine2008]

What, you are against any intervention, anywhere?

That's not very serious.

[Coinyer101]

intervention would no longer be necessary. we are not the policemen of the world, are we?

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

... Incidentally, the argument, as it were, that someone might succeed in evading a ban on assault rifles and attack you in your home with one, so you should have the legal right to buy an assault rifle is amusing.

Why shouldn't I be able to defend myself with, say, a bazooka against a hypothetical threat?

[AntiSocialite]

...or a tank, or a helicopter gunship, or a nuclear weapon?

Where does it stop? There will always be someone out there who can 'bear more sophisticated arms' than you or I, and for the real nuts, who think that somehow they must be able to defend themselves against the government your last line as well as my first line are what they truly think.

McVeigh and Nichols were that type of crazy and just look at what they did. It's time for sensibility.

In that same vein of sensibility, it's time that our elected representatives adopted a more rational approach to the Drug War which, lets face it, is the real source of the violence. Although I find it terribly cliche the NRA's slogan of "Guns don't kill people, people kill people," does have a certain element of truth and in the case of Mexico it's more like, "guns don't kill people, money kills people... Drug money."

[WorkingClass]

You wouldn't be so amused if you lived in my neighborhood.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

There was a famous cartoon when the Internet got really up and running ...

"On the Internet, no one knows if you're a dog."

That's not necessarily true any longer.

[BottomLine2008]

And on the opposite end of the peace at all costs crowd is the gimme a gun to defend against the aliens in "Independence Day" crowd.

Two extremes, both out of it.

[marignymitch]

Incipient? I think we're well beyond that stage. Buy a sword; no waiting.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

Perhaps.

[TheBurdicks]

Too much distraction here.
Assault weapons are only a symptom.
Illegal drugs are the problem.
Sure, address the symptom. It's easy. Ban all combat suitable weapons, register and license all other sporting suitable guns. To He11 with the NRA, and the rest of the gun nuts.
But don't forget that it is much more critical to treat the problem, even as you address the symptom. Decriminalize all drugs. They have always been a public health problem, not a criminal issue. Marijuana might appropriately even be legalized. It is certainly less of a public health problem than already legal alcohol and tobacco. Cocaine, heroin, and designer drugs demand much tighter regulation and a serious public health response, emphasizing education and treatment.
Prohibition was a catastrophic failure resulting in run away criminal activity. Once again, we fail to learn, even from our recent history.

[vinny]

What about mexican sledgehammers?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YgYL1GvMBeQ

[GuillermoGodinez]

The assault weapon ban won't solve the problem, but this problem will require a million solutions in the areas of security and development, controlling illegal firearms and ammunition to Mexico will be one important part. Of course, there are weapons coming from all over the world it is a global industry and the world is still saturated with tens of millions of Soviet era AK-47s looking for homes. Ask your average big US city police chief if he would like to see the assault weapons ban renewed!

What I find more interesting is that Obama is moving away from Plan Colombia in Colombia and asking for a more balanced approach to security and development there - after success in making Colombia a safer place in general (Bogota and Medellin have lower homicide rates then Detroit, Houston, DC and Atlanta), but failed at reducing coca cultivation and drugs trafficking. While at the same time he is moving forward with Plan Colombia in Mexico!! Mexico is not Colombia it is going to be a more difficult battle, it is a much bigger country.

[OdinsEye]

"Of course, there are weapons coming from all over the world it is a global industry and the world is still saturated with tens of millions of Soviet era AK-47s looking for homes."

None of which are affected by the AWB. The firearms you are talking about are full-auto. The AWB had nothing to do with full-auto firearms.

"Ask your average big US city police chief if he would like to see the assault weapons ban renewed!"

Your city police chiefs are usually political appointees/elected officials who will support anything the politicians ask them to in return for money.


FYI, I am a cop.

[Mexitli]

"Your city police chiefs are usually political appointees/elected officials.­.."

How can you be an appointee and an elected official at the same time?

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

Actually, you are a guy using more than one handle pushing NRA spin as ostensible comments on my column ...

>FYI, I am a cop.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

That's more spin, as you well know.

The facts you don't like, and there are a lot of them, you try to spin away.

[GuillermoGodinez]

FYI, I am a former intelligence official that trains police for a living now.. You should know how easy then it is to convert semi-auto to full auto - something they do all the time.

[BottomLine2008]

Man, you are one persistent gun ENTHUSIAST.

lol

You don't like what the police chiefs say -- yes on assault weapons ban -- so you diss them by saying they are elected or appointed.

1. Sheriffs are elected. Police chiefs very seldom are.

2. How else does someone get into a public office other than by election or, as most chiefs are, appointment by elected officials?

This is a democracy.

Think about it ...

[OdinsEye]

"about 90% of the weapons captured from cartel members by Mexican security forces come from the US "

There is no proof of this! What the BATFE said was that of the firearms they were able to trace, 90% came from the US. This is only a small fraction of the weapons captured by the Mexican forces - about 17%. Mexican forces have captured a lot of firearms. Less than half were attempted to be traced by the BATFE and of those, less than half were able to be traced.

The 94 AWB did not reduce the flow of firearms into Mexico. The flow of firearms increased because of Mexican authorities going after the cartels. Remember that the 94 AWB basically banned features, not firearms. A pre-ban and post ban AR-15 function exactly the same and have the exact same capabilities.

Furthermore, items like full-auto firearms, including true assault rifles and other machine guns, the 5.7 mm SS190 AP bullet, and explosives cannot be purchased in the US by simply walking into a gun store or gun show. These items are very strictly controlled and the process and paperwork to obtain them are lengthy. Most of those kinds of items are coming from the Mexican Army, police, and Central America.

So renewing the 94 AWB would accomplish absolutely nothing.

[BottomLine2008]

Thanks for the NRA spin.

lol

The fact is the President of Mexico wants the assault weapons ban back.

The Mexican government says the flow of high-powered guns into Mexico increased sharply after Bush and Cheney let the assault weapons ban lapse.

[OdinsEye]

There was no spin on any of that. It is all factual.

"The fact is the President of Mexico wants the assault weapons ban back."

I don't live in Mexico and he is not my President, so he can want cows that give chocolate milk or geese that lay golden eggs.

"The Mexican government says the flow of high-powered guns into Mexico increased sharply after Bush and Cheney let the assault weapons ban lapse."

CONGRESS let the AWB lapse. And for good reason. It was a horribly written law and CONGRESS learned their lesson when the next round of elections came around.

Define "high powered".

The flow of firearms increasing after the AWB expired was a coincidence. There were many other larger factors which cause this increase.

The 94 AWB did not really "ban" any firearms. It banned features. A bayonet lug or flash hider has no affect on the capability and function of a firearm.

Please learn what the 94 AWB actually "banned".

[Bladernr1001]

It does not matter whether you ban them or not. The cartels will get them. Gangs will still get them. Only people who will not get them are law abiding citizens..­..so who wins?....t­he bad guys.

[blueman55]

Because corrupt govts like Mexico's would never lie to get more US aid coming their way...

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

I see you didn't take a statistics class ...

[WritusMaximus]

No mention at all of government corruption. Tsk, tsk, a minor omission.

[OdinsEye]

Statistics? What part do you want to talk about?

If I take 40% of all the firearms recovered and try to trace them, but of that 40% I am only successful in tracing half of those, and of those I could trace, only 90% were traceable to US sources, you tell me: How many firearms can you say for certain came from the US? If you say 18% you are correct.

What the BATFE said was that 90% of the firearms they could trace came from US sources. The BATFE was only asked to trace about 40% of the firearms the Mexicans have recovered. Of that 40%, the BATFE was only successful in about half of the cases.

[BottomLine2008]

That sure ain't what the Mexicans say. You think you know more than they do about what goes on in their country?

Hah!

The President of Mexico just asked for an American assault weapons ban to help with the fight against the drug cartels. That's what I care about. I don't care about what some American gun ENTHUSIAST says.

>>>>The 94 AWB did not reduce the flow of firearms into Mexico. The flow of firearms increased because of Mexican authorities going after the cartels.

[TRex86]

The key is to decriminalize drugs, taking out the huge profits attributable to the "risk premium" of drug smuggling. No money; no supply. Moreover, decriminalizing drug use per se dramatically diminishes collateral drug-related crimes (eg, burglary).
The War on Drugs remains a Dickensian war on (sick) people and among the ten dumbest ideas of the 20th century. It makes as much sense as imprisoning schizophrenics a la the 19th century. Controlling demand is a function of medical care. A plethora of studies have shown that treatment works. Of course our pathetic health care system is at its worst in matters of mental health/substance abuse.
Our policy is a proven failure. Our zealous commitment to it is not simply a sign of insanity; it is evidence of the entrenched interests promoting this feckless war. We must get real. Four groups are deeply invested in the status quo: 1. law enforcement/prison guards; 2. politicians who need non-voters against whom to campaign; 3. drug cartels (obviously); 4. third rate scientists who exploit failed policy to peddle bogus science.

[Mexitli]

What incipient chaos?

Mexico will soon break up the cartels, who truthfully do not stand a chance against the government, and the drug dealers will find a new route to supply you Americans with your drugs.

Let's face it, your won't stop consuming and you probably will not decriminalize either.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

You're explaining why the cartels will survive.

[Mexitli]

Perhaps, but for us the goal is to get them out of Mexico.

Who knows, maybe your gov will invest in drug education for children and medical maintenance for addicts. and if they decriminalized at the same time then the cartels would not find another route.

They would just go away.

[marley22]

Where are all the calls for legalizing or decriminalizing drugs?

It'd become Mexico's largest industry and fit in with all the NAFTA-backers. It'd eliminate crime on both sides of the border; there'd be no need for guns. We could empty our jails.

Since religion is in decline, we need a new 'opiate of the masses' anyway.

[BottomLine2008]

That last clip is a really good round-up of the crisis.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

Yes, they did a good job.

[BottomLine2008]

Look at all that guns and ammo from America in the AP clip.

[BottomLine2008]

And it's really too bad Obama won't push for the assault weapons ban.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

He may be too cautious on this.

[jhamm1]

CAutious or otherwise, he's simply neglecting a partial remedy in favor of emphasizing a factor which the government is incapable of regulating (addiction), not to mention shying away from acknowledging the long-standing fact that the costly and overextended "War on Drugs" is unwinnable.

[OdinsEye]

The AWB would not accomplish anything. It was probably the most ill conceived, poorly written, and ineffective law ever penned.

[BottomLine2008]

Obama is appropriately respectful there in Mexico City. That's a good quote from JFK.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

The JFK quote is actually pretty ironic, as Mexico has long been mostly ignored even though it's key.

[BottomLine2008]

Wow, this is a mess. Too bad legalization is so off the table for politicians.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

That would be the issue of the year. In a year when there are a half-dozen issues of the year.