Obama In Flux

As he embarks on his first big trip to Asia, President Barack Obama's strategies are in flux in many areas.

His first stop, Japan, is acting more independently of America after the long reign of the relatively conservative Liberal Democratic Party.

His next stop, Singapore, host of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, holds a host of trade challenges, as well as a sideline meeting with Russian President Dmitri Medvedev.

Afghanistan is following President Barack Obama to Asia.

The stop after that, China, is the increasingly assertive great power on the cusp of superpower status, locked in a symbiotic economic relationship with America.

His final stop, South Korea, is friendly but embroiled in an endless stand-off with North Korea, another aspiring nuclear power.

It's no surprise that Obama is being followed on his Asian trip by other crises. Because so much in his geopolitics is so fundamentally unresolved, making that Nobel Peace Prize more than a bit premature.

He still doesn't have his newest strategy for Afghanistan. Pakistan is embroiled in its latest offensive against the Taliban.

Obama on Thursday began a week-long trip to Asia, touring a complex region where a newly assertive China and a more independent Japan are challenging America's traditional dominance.

Iran has refused to sign the nuclear agreement its representatives negotiated in Vienna.

The Iranian nuclear situation becomes more convoluted every day. Now the head of the Iranian military has stated that he favors the plan Iran agreed to last month in Vienna, only to stall on ratification, then say no, and then say it wanted to re-negotiate on "details."

There is either a power struggle under way in Tehran or Iran is trying to buy time against harsher sanctions and a possible Israeli attack.

The Obama Administration moved yesterday to seize a New York skyscraper and four mosques around the country -- including one in California, in the sleepy Sacramento suburb of Carmichael -- that it says are secretly controlled by Iran, serving as conduits of cash for the regime.

Then there is the endless question of Israel and Palestine. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton set off a firestorm in the Arab world when she said that Israel had done enough on its program of settlements on the West Bank. Which it is continuing. That was walked back by the administration. But there is little progress in this possibly intractable situation, with neither side willing to compromise much.

With regard to Russia, whose president Obama is again about to meet, it may be shifting away from Iran. This may be part of a complex series of political changes in Moscow which sees power apparently flowing away from the siloviki, or core group of security/intel types. Relations with Russia have also been in flux, with kinder words and some better cooperation on Afghanistan and nuclear proliferation, but no clear agreement on Russia's preferred sphere of influence in its "near abroad."

Tony Blair's farewell speech to the British Labour Party conference in 2006, the beginning of his long goodbye tour.

And then there is the matter of Tony Blair. (I know, he's not a country. Though an old friend joked that when he listens to the Beatles' "Sun King" he thinks of Blair.) His bid to be the first president of the European Union is still alive, though heavily opposed. In part because of Iraq, in part because he is in other respects out of step with Europe's mostly center-right leaders, and in part because he is a superstar who would overshadow smaller countries and the aspirational leaders of larger countries.

European leaders will gather in Brussels next Thursday to make the decision. Blair is a longtime American ally, to put it mildly, so his election would be mostly welcomed in Washington.

While almost all of America slept, Obama held summit meetings with new Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama.

Hatoyama's party swept the long-ruling LDP from power earlier this year. Amidst promises of a more independent relationship with America. But Hatoyama is no radical. Actually, he is part of the long-ruling elite of his island nation.

His father was the foreign minister in an LDP government. His paternal grandfather was prime minister and head of the LDP. His maternal grandfather was the founder of Bridgestone, one of the world's largest tire companies.

It's likely, in the Japanese way, that he will pursue a moderated course of independence.

And Obama, with his Nobel Peace Prize and global celebrity, is the president to work that through, while retaining America's longtime fundamental interests in the region.

Japan still wants protection from North Korea, and a place under America's nuclear umbrella with regard to China. America still wants bases. Both want favorable trade arrangements and free-flowing capital and technology.

But it's Afghanistan that looms over Obama's shoulder as he makes his way through a series of geopolitical minefields in Asia.

Obama won't accept any of the Afghanistan war options before him without changes as concerns soar over the ability of the Afghan government to secure its own country

As Obama works his way toward his newest strategy on Afghanistan, a new Gallup Poll finds the nation split down the middle, with only pluralities for any position.

35% of Americans say he should follow the recommendation of the commanding U.S. general in Afghanistan and increase troop levels by about 40,000. Another 7% support a smaller troop increase, meaning a total of 42% of Americans support a troop increase of some size. However, nearly the same percentage, 44%, would like to see the number of U.S. troops in Afghanistan reduced.

With 44% of Americans in the Nov. 5-8 poll favoring a troop reduction and 7% wanting to keep troop levels where they are, a slim majority appears to oppose a troop increase. Last month, using a different question wording, Gallup also found the public largely divided on sending more troops to Afghanistan.

If Obama decides to increase U.S. troop levels in Afghanistan, he will be going against the wishes of the vast majority of rank-and-file Democrats. In fact, 60% of Democrats would like the president to begin to reduce troop levels in Afghanistan, while 26% support a troop increase of about 40,000 (18%) or less than that number (8%).

On the other hand, the majority of Republicans side with Gen. McChrystal's recommendation and support an increase of about 40,000 U.S. troops, with an additional 6% of Republicans favoring a smaller troop increase.

Independents are evenly divided between favoring a troop increase of any size (36% would like Obama to follow McChrystal's recommended increase and 7% favor a smaller increase) and supporting a reduction in U.S. troops (43%).

This is a pretty slender reed on which to base an escalation.

There is also a big gender gap on Afghanistan.

Men are much more likely than women to favor expanding the U.S. military operation in Afghanistan. A majority of men favor a troop increase (including 45% who believe Obama should follow McChrystal's recommendation) while only 32% of women agree. A majority of women would like to see the U.S. reduce its troop presence in Afghanistan.

Obama took part in the memorial service at Fort Hood and also delivered an address, one of his best, on the enduring nature and value of military service in the changing world of the early 21st century.

In the midst of all that, Obama has wildly diverging advice from his new commander and his new ambassador in Afghanistan, a retired general himself.

Obama apparently now wants additional options beyond those presented by General Stanley McChrystal, US commander in Afghanistan. And an exit plan. As well he might.

The new US ambassador to Afghanistan, retired General Karl Eikenberry, sent several cables late last week to the president opposing an escalation in Afghanistan, saying that President Hamid Karzai is incompetent and corrupt and that a surge will only make Afghanistan more dependent on America.

The only reasonable mission for America in Afghanistan is to ensure that Al Qaeda can no longer use it as a base for its training and operations. That doesn't require the sort of nation-building as counter-insurgency that McChrystal is advocating. Advocating, that is, with no guarantee of success.

That there is so much unsettled doesn't mean that Obama isn't doing his job. It means that it's a complicated world not given to bumper sticker "solutions."

You can check things during the day on my site, New West Notes ... www.newwestnotes.com.

 

Comments

[Oleg1]

"As he embarks on his first big trip to Asia, President Barack Obama's strategies are in flux in many areas."

When you elect a a novice as a leader of a global power you get some pros and some cons.
In this case "flux" is a polite euphemism ( mine, not the author's) for:" I really don't know what I am doing,
but I promise I will, eventually"

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

Oh, he has a pretty good grasp of what he's doing. If you don't grasp the complexity, then you make big honking mistakes, as we've seen for the past eight years.

[globalcitizenlinda]

Thanks for the summary of the many challenges that President Obama and the global community at large face - ths is a ciritical time on the geo-political stage.

I am personally glad that President Obama is the most pwerful person in the world now and he is the one making these extremly tough decisions.

We as a global community must thank all the American voters who decided to elect on No/4th/2008, a President with most of the tools a leader making these tough decisions would need such as President Obama's own:
- global personal and family background which provides a broad view,
- his high intellect,
- empathy and personal kindness,
-his ability not to hold silly grudges,
-his quiet strength (shown in his actions not to shout empty slogans and threats but push back clamly behind closed doors),
-his strong and smart spouse,
-and most importantly his calm demeanor and insistence on have all options out on the table.

We are lucky that these burdens are now all laid on the capable shoulders of a person with high internal discipline and supreme confidence in himself and those he has entrusted with the importan responsibilities.

My only disappointment in some Americans is how we have quickly forgotten or choose to ignore the the magnitude of the challenges handed to President Obama or our pure selfishness and impatience as he tries to address these multiple fronts

[tavote08]

BRAVO,
even on my angriest day with President Obama I can't even imagine anyone but him holding the reins at this point and time in our geo-political journey. Eight years of Bush, the possibility of McCain and Palin; as much as I thank the voters I thank God even more...

I support our President 100% and trust in his ability to see the bigger picture and the greater good.

[Oleg1]

"I support our President 100% and trust in his ability to see the bigger picture and the greater good."
I am VERY happy Democrats are in power again.
I also think people who insist on placing blind trust in our political leaders are doing great disservice to American democracy.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

Very good points. And thanks!

[MARNIE2]

wow ! ..........­.........c­alling for .....more .beer summit's ????......­..........­.lmao !

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

Drinking and driving, not a good idea ...

[Neil Mick]

The Israel/Palestine situation is dead in the water. Abbas has declared the talks dead unless the Israeli's stop their illegal settlements (which they have declared their intentions to do the opposite), while Clinton (remember her cry of "we're all Israeli's now?" when Lebanon was being bombed and invaded? The Lebanese sure do) and Netenyahu attempt the same tired formula of Israel being the "troubled and surrounded nation." No doubt the President will soon wear the media-mantle of the "honest broker."

It's almost like a bad sitcom: this formula has been rerun for decades... only this time the show is ringed with ever more outrages (viz, Operation Cast Lead; the US and Israel decrying the Goldman Report, which merely asks both sides to investigate themselves, etc). The best Obama can hope for under these circumstances is to cough up another useless "Road Map" that will be promptly ignored, when the new guy comes in.

Regarding Iran: you're right...it is complicated. I'm not sure what was gained by seizing mosques in this country, but it certainly won't improve the lives of Muslim-Americans in this country. Nor, will it improve the tone of Iranian-American relations. On the other hand, the Administration is more than just one person, and I'm sure (hope?) that this investigation was not some sort of "payback" against Muslims. That would be a sad thing for everyone.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

Reportedly the network was used to get a half billion in cash to Iran.

[Winning09]

Charging three Berkeley hikers with espionage isn't a good thing for Iran to do, either!!!!

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

Clearly not.

[laksa]

By chance I am now in Singapore. You all should be proud that you are an American. Just think only 11 months ago, we, those traveling abroad needed and wanted another nationality?!

[mikefina]

I've NEVER wanted to be anything other than an American while abroad.

It has sometimes been difficult to be one at home.

[PrincipiaChamp]

Is there indeed a significant shift on how other countries view Americans? You know, from when Bush-Cheney were in the White House?

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

Were you a "Canadian" for a while? :)

[SparkyDash]

No doot aboot it ;-)

[marignymitch]

Thanks for the summary, Mr Bradly.

The heavy, perhaps suicidal, toll of permanent war on our soldiers and our nation is a factor that is almost always omitted in the debate to escalate/not escalate . Even so-called liberal pundits instead focus on the question of whether Afghanista­n/Pakistan are viable and therefore worthy of the effort. I myself am primarily concerned (as in seriously concerned) about the damage that futile wars of choice (our third) are having on the homefront. The US is devouring itself financially, spiritually and emotionally to feed the war machine, yet few seem to notice as we wade further into ruin. I strongly suggest we heed the histories of the former empires of Greece, Great Britain and the Soviet Union in that region; therein lie cautionary tales of hubris and national self-destruction. We won't be the first to commit suicide, but we can be next.

[marignymitch]

I mean 'Bradley'. Sorry.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

Suicidal?

[SparkyDash]

I worked closely with doctors of varying specialties. Internists and FPs would assess a patient by taking in consideration myriad factors (patient beliefs, lifestyle, treatment prognosis, etc.)...the whole patient and outcomes.

Surgeons were known to assess a patient, and if there was any chance the patient's condition would improve through surgery...any at all, and whether or not the patient would improve through another method of treatment...they always recommended cutting. Surgeons like to cut.

It reminds me of generals. Generals will always want and ask for more troops.

Karl Eikenberry is also military. His opinion on Afghanistan, like that of James Jones, interests me because of their military backgrounds and the fact that they are now looking at a situation as non-military specifically. Both, as VP Biden, recommend almost opposite of McChrystal/Clinton (now Gates). McChrystal­/Clinton/G­ates are obviously privvy to details the rest of us are not, but they appear to me as cutters.

WIth Afghanistan, I see the value of military experience, but as is said on this blog, this is a highly complex area, issue, situation, decision. I think it should be treated as such. I guess I'm saying I hope Biden/Jone­s/Eikenber­ry is the physician's group Obama choses.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

Yep.

>Surgeons like to cut.

It reminds me of generals. Generals will always want and ask for more troops.

[party-of-one]

It is not that simple, is it? We seem to have milirary for-pofit contracts who Must have war for profit. As a clear consensus and timetable for withdrawal from Iraq takes shape, so does the lobby by profiteering defense contractors for escalting a costly and protracted involvement in Afghanistan.

[SparkyDash]

Alas, IMHO, for some it is just as simple as that.

[tavote08]

I think this President is going to disappoint both the right and the left, the cutters and the alternative means; if no one is happy you must be doing something right...

[SparkyDash]

No doubt he will disappoint individuals on both right and left; few will be completely satisfied. It is hoped he receives all valuable input...as he intimated he has...to make such a significant decision. I don't think Mr. Obama makes decisions to please his base or secure re-election; I trust he makes well-informed decisions by using good intelligence, listening to arguments pro and con (and different), and thoughtfully weighing impact on many. Tough job if done well.

[party-of-one]

Wiiliam Bradley provides a helpful catalogue of the challenges that frame President Obama's Asian visits. He concludes: "That there is so much unsettled doesn't mean that Obama isn't doing his job. It means that it's a complicated world not given to bumper sticker 'solutions.'"

He also notes the important factors of Obama's "Nobel Peace Prize [though arguably premature] and global celebrity", which can give this President additional resinence as a new leader.

On the down side, Bradley makes a comment that pegs one of Obama's other great challenges: "Secretary of State Hillary Clinton set off a firestorm in the Arab world when she said that Israel had done enough on its program of settlements on the West Bank. "

There are signs that Mrs. Clinton is frustrated in the shadow, again, of a President with apopular international profile. Her resentment spilled out in her trip to the Congo. It may also explain the frequent troubling mis-speaks, an arrogant, lecturing tone, combined with unfortunate choices of words described as "careless" "naive" 'verbal bombs." With Pakistan, Aghanistan, Turkey-Armenia, Honduras, Israel-Palestine, Germany, Hillary seems more about seeking headlines than Peace, creating more issues than she resolves. It's like rookie trying to hit a homerun everytime at bat, and striking out.

Hillary and her admirers tend to overestimate her. President Obama needs loyal effective colleagues to help address the myriad of international challenges our natoin faces. His SoS needs her own headlines, and it is increasingly counter prodcutive.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

Thanks, I appreciate it.

Hillary has committed some gaffes, as pointed out here more a few times ... However, I think she is a valuable secretary of state.

She has a global celebrity and that makes her a good stand-in for Obama.

[party-of-one]

Thanks. I understand that perspective. As a New York constituent, however, I observered her fundamental lack of good judgement and my perception of her badly miscalculated self interest [as a wannabe Commander in Chief] in voting to give George W Bush authority to invade Iraq, and her nuclear saber rattling toward Iran as a presiential candidate. The value she has to the Obama administration, in my opinion, has nothing to do with international relations, it is simply to quiet her and her husband as likely poltical cricitics.

We disagree, but I greatly respect and learn from your analysis. best.

[alex61]

"...not given to bumper sticker solutions." So true-now. However, when Bush was president, all these problems were seen as being fairly simple and the only reason that they weren't being solved was because Bush was incompetent.
Another 180 turn for the Dems.

[Winning09]

Bush created the trouble.

It takes a while to clean up after 8 years of stupid.

[Winning09]

Barack's speech at Fort Hood is a brilliant speech.

I hope he doesn't have many more occasions to give a speech like that.

[SparkyDash]

Well said.

[Winning09]

Thanks!

[Winning09]

This clip lays out the problems. So what does he do? It feels like he is trying to split the difference.

>>>> Obama won't accept any of the Afghanistan war options before him without changes as concerns soar over the ability of the Afghan government to secure its own country

[Winning09]

That's a great speech by Tony Blair to the Labor Party.

It's sad, too. He was THIS CLOSE to being a great man. Iraq, Iraq, Iraq...

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

Yes, there is that ...

[Winning09]

There is that... They'll probably pick a drone.

[Winning09]

Which is the bigger challenge, China or Tokyo? I think it's China, by far.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

Tokyo has many reasons to keep close.

[Winning09]

That's a good news video on Afghanistan following the President to Asia.

[Winning09]

What a mess Barack's gotten hold of. I think he's doing as well as anybody can.

[LizM]

Bill, I hope you're up for taking a walk on the wild side...

Who do you think President Obama, given his current state of flux, will be more inclined to listen to...his new commander in Afghanistan, whose own report and recommendations therein betray a fundamental detachment from reality and who makes my own cockeyed optimism look an awful lot like hardened pragmatism, or...his new ambassador to Afghanistan who obviously has his feet planted solidly on terra firma and who has a fundamental grasp of what is happening in Afghanistan and who obviously understands what lies in the realm of the possible?

How’s that for a loaded question!?

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

That's a pretty good loaded question.

I think I pick the lady rather than the tiger.

[LizM]

That is a fine choice when you can make it ... with or without a little help from your friends. :)

Let's hope President Obama gets all of the sound advice he needs to know which one is which.

[PrincipiaChamp]

LOL...very good ;-)


You two: Nick and Nora, I swear!

[SparkyDash]

Indeed...

[Azsin]

MAN BUsh really left Obama with every sort of problem short of ww3 or and E.L.E event

wish people would just settle down and stop criticising so much
left and right
its hasnt even been a year

to much argument at home might make people think America hasnt changed since the bushisms and they might just go there own way

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

It's called hysteria.