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William K. Zinke

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Who Will Be Supporting Retired Workers In 2020?

Posted: 06/25/2012 5:57 am

In 1950 there were 16.5 workers for every retired worker. In 2012 the ratio was reduced to
3.3 to 1. By 2020 that ratio is projected at 2.2 to 1 and to almost 2 to 1 by 2030. Is anyone considering these projections and their implications for the U.S. economy?

Actually, there is good news. Thirty years were added to longevity in the 20th century; Gary Becker, an economics professor at the University of Chicago and Pulitzer Prize winner has called this the greatest gift of the 20th century. The U.S. has moved from an industrial to a knowledge-based economy; in fact, only 11 percent of the civilian workforce is employed in industrial companies and 84 percent in service companies. And we have a large and growing talent pool of Baby Boomers, 80 percent of whom, according to a 2011 survey conducted by AARP, indicate their intent to continue working after retirement.

The reality is that with the dramatic increase in longevity in the 20th century, millions of people
are qualified and ready to continue working after the traditional retirement age of 65. This is very good news because we have a large and growing talent pool with experience, expertise,
seasoned judgment, and proven performance (we call this EESP) to meet the workforce needs
of the 21st century.

Let's talk about the definition of retirement because we need a new word. Here is the definition
from Webster's II New College Dictionary: "to remove from active service; to remove from
circulation." Fortunately, many of the Baby Boomers will be moving from retirement into
rehirement, or perhaps into rewirement.

There is one more piece of good news. In a survey sponsored by 24 major companies and
completed by Harris Interactive in November 2011, "Survey on the Strategic Involvement of HR
in Fortune 1000 Companies
," 24 percent of the companies reported that they had developed flexible workplace options for people who want to work on a part-time basis. More companies will be doing the same as the economy improves and they recognize the need to provide such options to retain and attract older workers. In fact, more flexibility will be required in managing tomorrow's workforce, including Gen Ys and the Millennials who indicate that work flexibility is important.

Now for the bad news. Americans still retain the mindset that when you reach a certain age
(pick 55, 60, or 65), you are out of the game and the headlights are getting dim. This mindset
needs to be changed to accord with the demographic realities: a new and third-stage of
adulthood has been created from 62-85; this concept was provided in a paper co-authored in 2000 by Dr. Elliott Jaques, who introduced the notion of the mid-life crisis in 1965. We need to recalibrate our thinking for this new reality. If we fail to do so and these Baby Boomers are pushed to the sidelines, our entitlement programs (e.g. Social Security and Medicare) will become unsustainable even sooner than projected.

Another piece of news, which some will call bad, is that the retirement age needs to be increased to 70 and the early retirement age to 67, then linked to further longevity gains. These changes must clearly be done equitably and gradually over a number of years. But it is essential that the age be changed from a Social Security Act passed in 1935 when the retirement age was set at 65 because few people lived longer.

The bad news will get even worse if we don't take action now to increase the retirement age.
Quoting Winston Churchill: "Americans can always be counted on to do the right thing... after
exhausting all of the other alternatives."

Closing on a positive note, documented research (the MacArthur Foundation Study on Aging in
America) demonstrates that older people who continue working beyond traditional retirement
age live longer, enjoy better health and report greater satisfaction with life than those who
don't. Working longer may not be for everyone, but it can contribute to a better quality of life
for many older people.

William Zinke is the founder and president of The Center for Productive Longevity, a nonprofit whose mission is to stimulate the substantially increased engagement of people 55 and older in productive activities, paid and volunteer, where they are qualified and ready to continue adding value.

EARLIER ON HUFF/POST50: Charles Schwab's 2012 Older Workers and Money Survey

Loading Slideshow...
  • They're Not Ready To Retire

    More than one-third of 60-somethings say they don't plan to stop working, versus 25 percent of 50-somethings. In fact, nearly twice as many workers in their 60s as 50s say they just don't want to retire (32 percent vs. 19 percent). Why? It may be flexibility: The study shows that people in their 60s are more likely to be working part-time and enjoying the flexibility of doing so. They are also more likely to enjoy the people they work with and to say they'd feel bored if they weren't working.

  • They're Still In Their Stride

    More than two-thirds of workers ages 50 to 69 consider themselves ahead of the game when it comes to job skills and report being "intellectually stimulated," "still learning" and "working to [their] full potential" at their jobs.

  • They Love What They Do

    More than two-thirds of respondents report that they were "intellectually stimulated" by their jobs, and more than half said they like what they do (interestingly, this percentage was higher among women than men).

  • They Like The People They Work With

    Nearly half of survey respondents reported that they like the people they work with.

  • They're Mentors To Their Younger Colleagues

    Sixty-eight percent reported that they provided advice to their younger colleagues on how to "handle professional issues," "how to navigate around the organization" and "how [they] can do their jobs better."

  • They're Worried About Money

    Half of workers characterize themselves as doing "ok" financially, and an additional 10 percent believe they're doing "well." But 31 percent feel they're "just getting by," and another eight percent say they're "falling behind." A majority express confidence that they'll have enough income to be comfortable in retirement (62 percent), yet their personal finances may not support that; nearly half have less than $100,000 in investable assets. Shedding debt is a top priority among workers in their 50s vs. those their 60s (51% vs. 42%).

  • They're Concerned About Caregiving

    Two-thirds of older workers worry about the prospect of needing to take care of a spouse or other family member; 37 percent believing they'll be faced with care-giving obligations in the next decade. With respect to personal responsibility for care-giving, many more women than men see this looming in their future (42 percent vs. 33 percent).

 

Follow William K. Zinke on Twitter: www.twitter.com/CTRPL

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In 1950 there were 16.5 workers for every retired worker. In 2012 the ratio was reduced to 3.3 to 1. By 2020 that ratio is projected at 2.2 to 1 and to almost 2 to 1 by 2030. Is anyone considering the...
In 1950 there were 16.5 workers for every retired worker. In 2012 the ratio was reduced to 3.3 to 1. By 2020 that ratio is projected at 2.2 to 1 and to almost 2 to 1 by 2030. Is anyone considering the...
 
 
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HUFFPOST BLOGGER
William K. Zinke
04:42 PM on 06/27/2012
I appreciate the comments of readers on my post. The intention of this blog was to raise concerns about support for retired workers in 2020, but also to stress that we have a large and growing talent pool of people 55+ who are qualified and ready to continue working. According to an AARP survey of Baby Boomers in 2011, about 80 percent want to continue working after leaving their regular career jobs. More that half want to work on a part-time basis where their experience and expertise could not be matched by younger workers. I completely understand concern regarding the availability of jobs in the current U.S. market. While this is certainly a topic worth discussing, another aspect to consider is the potential job growth stemming from new-business creation by people 55+.

I recognize that continued work is not for everyone. There are a variety of other avenues where older Americans can be engaged: volunteer work, teaching, mentoring/coaching, continued learning, care-giving, and more. However, some people have the financial need to continue working, and many others simply enjoy the social connection.

People 55+ have the opportunity to enjoy life in many ways; we encourage them to share their stories on new-business creation and inspirational life stories. The Center for Productive Longevity has created a contest to stimulate discussion about how older people can continue adding value to their extended lives. Further details can be obtained at www.ctrpl.org.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Willie12345
04:01 PM on 06/27/2012
The illegals will do it. Just collect the money from them and don't given them any benefits. It works for me.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
smmrselysummers
Be the parent your children can be proud of
11:07 AM on 06/27/2012
I refuse to live my last days in an incapacitated state. Don't come looking for me, you won't find the body.
03:14 PM on 06/25/2012
No way I want to work until I'm 67 or 70. I'm only 45 and already wishing I could retire. Life it too short to spend it at work no matter how much I like my job. So I save every penny possible, avoid debt and live well below my means so I'll be ready to walk away from my job the day I turn 60.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Ann Oid
Idiocracy was apparently a documentary
10:55 AM on 06/25/2012
So...if I have to work another 10 yrs to retire "early" at 67, that means my job does NOT become open to a younger person. If there were more than enough jobs so that both boomers and Gens X and Y could be fully employed making decent wages, later retirement makes sense.

The whole thing would be solved if there were enough jobs that paid middle class wages.

Plus, median wage stagnation (Bill Moyers had a stunning graphic on his show yesterday illustrating that) means lower overall contributions to SS. If the economic growth of the past 30 years translated into a jump in median wage, the SS fund would probably be fully funded. Instead, the gains go to the top, where SS contributions get capped quickly.

And another consequence of college grads working at Starbucks and similar positions is that they will be permanently behind in their lifetime earnings, also depressing SS contribution levels.

(Do the people who think we should all dance happily at the prospect of working till we're 70 understand what real jobs are like?? They should read Dilbert for a very good picture.)
09:19 AM on 06/25/2012
Zinke says, that older people who continue working beyond traditional retirement age live longer, enjoy better health and report greater satisfaction with life than those who don't.

Of course they do, they enjoy better health aka energy and that is why they can continue working. They don't become healthier from working. They were already healthier. These same people would fare just as well if they retired. They would write books, do volunteer work, spend time with their grandchildren, take trips, stimulate the economy, start a business and whatever.

Is there a link to the years longevity? According to statistics the increase has been about 2.5 years for the lower paid earner and 5.5 years for the higher paid earner since Social Security began. If you mean in the since the biginning of the 20th century, less children die now than back then. We aren't living that much longer.

In my area I see more dying in their sixties and not many living to their eighties. Check your obituary page, to see what is happening in your area.

Why are they insisting that people work longer when there is not enough jobs for the young families?
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jeffrey678
You don't happen to make it. You make it happen.
08:10 AM on 06/25/2012
The ACLU, supported big business’s “Right To Work” anti-labor laws. Less than twenty years after Fred Koch fought to destroy labor rights through “Right To Work” laws, the executive director of the ACLU, Aryeh Neier—the same Aryeh Neier who later led Human Rights Watch— colluded with William Buckley to push the ACLU rightward against labor by getting the ACLU to represent big business and “Right To Work” laws, under the guise of “protecting free speech”—the same bullshit pretense always used by lawyers and advocates to help big business crush labor and democracy. This “free speech” pretense is the basis on which the ACLU currently supports the Citizens United decision, which effectively legalized the transformation of America into an oligarchy.

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2012/06/mark-ames-the-lefts-big-sellout-how-the-aclu-and-human-rights-groups-quietly-exterminated-labor-rights.html
07:45 AM on 06/25/2012
The bad news is the peasants are dying fast enough any more. What is this "Center for Productive Longevity"? Sounds like another Right Wing Think Tank, or I should say anti-think operation. I'm sure we can rely on "a survey sponsored by 24 major companies" to be fair and balanced.
07:09 AM on 06/25/2012
The exponential increase in healthcare costs year after year is enough in itself to require a return to that 16.5 to 1 ratio from 1950. I wouldn't call adding thirty years to human longevity the greatest gift of the 20th century. It's more like the 20th century's greatest prank foisted upon the 21st.
07:31 AM on 06/25/2012
Excellent point. If we handled lifestyle induced illness better, and stumped dumping hundreds of thousands of dollars into the last year of people's lives, we could call longevity a good thing.

A shocking number of my relatives who are now 65-80 managed to retire early with huge pensions and great health insurance. These folks have not spent the last 20 years of their lives giving back to society. They have benefited disproportionately from a historical fluke.
09:23 AM on 06/25/2012
According to the FBI statistics the life expectancy is 78 years. The world statistics say the same.