The fascinating element in the whole picture is how every dictator(ship) at the end of the day chooses to be suicidal. It is certainly a strange blend of despair, self-delusion and folly. As moths are drawn to a flame, despots let themselves be pulled into the darkness.
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has now clearly chosen that path. Under siege by the Arab League, Turkey and the U.S., he almost copies and pastes phrases like those that have fallen into the dark abyss: he repeats that he will fight 'til the very end, turning the "hostile world" into hell. To emphasize the defiance, he told the Sunday Times that "Syria will not bow down." (These words overlap with yesterday's story in the Sabah daily in Turkey -- based on intelligence data -- that the Assad regime has decided to widen its bloody crackdown to Damascus and Aleppo.
Addressing the Arab League, which is preparing for sanctions and tougher measures, he also added: "If they are logical, rational and realistic, they shouldn't do it because the repercussions are very dire. Military intervention will destabilize the region as a whole, and all countries will be affected."
The confrontation has now reached Damascus. Yesterday's attack targeting the Baath headquarters is a sign, a symbol that the opposition is to stay there to design other actions. The eight-month-old uprising, which was initially localized, has reached a new phase in which all the key elements of Syrian society will have to decide this or that position to add their bit to the outcome.
Assad pledged in the Times interview that there will be elections early next year to decide whether there will be a presidential system or not. Too late. He fails to admit that no credibility can henceforth be given to whatever he promises. He must expect no understanding from the Syrian public that there will be any "progress" under his guidance. Depending on the speed and volume of the uprising, he will, at best, face a fate like that of Hosni Mubarak.
Does the doomed Baath regime have any other political devices available? It is a given fact that the shrewdness inherent in the Syrian state will be at play for some time to come. Before and during the Rabat meeting, Damascus played a "divide and steer" tactic by pushing forward Algiers and Yemen to create cracks in the Arab League, but it seems to have failed. Given the fragility and entirely fresh dynamics in each and every state, the voices in favor of Syria are to remain weak. And, most critically, Russia will not be an enthusiastic power to defend a continuity of the Assad regime; it seems to use the conflict as a card in bargaining with Washington, D.C.
Now that the three-day deadline set by the Arab League ended, the critical question for the outside world will be when and how to intervene, not if. For that, the focus will be whether or not the episode will develop into a full-scale civil war. Is it likely? Not yet. Militarization of the conflict in all likelihood will first have to spread into the heart of the capital and in the last phase encircle Aleppo, a key city, because of its so-far-silent middle class. Meanwhile, the push of the opposition will continue inwards from the areas along the Lebanese and Turkish border. Assad will be left with no tools other than spilling blood because the time for a "grand gesture," such as initiating talks, is over.
The next phase, before any civil war stage, will be whether or not two defining segments of the society, the Sunni business elite and the middle classes, will choose to leave the regime, exposing its vulnerabilities. In the end, any regime left alone with its intelligence apparatus behind but its army weakened will be ready to collapse.
"The combination of mediocrity and wide disparities in material conditions, with chronic poverty in political rights, reached the point where millions of ordinary citizens made a simple but fateful calculation, unequivocally believing that it is worth risking one's life to stand up and demand their rights as citizens and a better governance system. Thousands have paid with their lives, and others will do so in the years ahead," Rami Khouri, a colleague in Beirut, wrote in the Daily Star.
This surely applies to Syria, and just because of its vicinity and utterly complex characteristics, it puts Turkey in the spotlight, for being able to very carefully co-orchestrate an inevitable transition. Ankara no longer has any doubt about "if" but "when"; with special emphasis on "how." The efforts must be concerted, each step at each phase meticulously calculated. No matter how, it will only be seen as a Kevorkian-style assisted suicide. The patient is determined.