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Why Mitt Romney Will Lose: Narrative Failure

Posted: 02/20/2012 6:35 pm

In the 1967 blockbuster film Cool Hand Luke, Paul Newman takes his final stand by telling the prison warden, "what we have here is a failure to communicate!" Little did he know that he could have been speaking in part about the 2012 Republican presidential nomination.

After all, in campaigns communication failures often spell doom.

And here we are, months into what Republicans see as the defining election of our time and who is one of the legitimate contenders?

Rick Santorum.

Yes, that Rick Santorum.

Why is this?

In the case of Mitt Romney, he hasn't failed to communicate. It's actually his communications successes that have led to his impending demise (and made Rick Santorum, yes that Rick Santorum, relevant).

Mitt Romney has the paradoxical ability to communicate more and yet convince less.

He has inadvertently succeeded in getting his message out about being a for-something-before-against-something candidate; an "evolving" candidate.

The consummate politician.

In fact, everything he communicates about his campaign is allowing an impossible-to-shake narrative take hold -- an election ender -- that he has no core and will say or do anything to get elected.

Sound familiar?

It should.

In 2004 the Republican machine went to work early, successfully attacking John Kerry as a flip-flopping , wind surfing, say-or-do anything to get elected politician.

War hero? Irrelevant.

Dedicated public servant? Not important.

The 2004 election was defined, and won, by the early establishment of Senator Kerry's narrative. In fact, defining Kerry's narrative helped President Bush overcome unpopular domestic and international policies -- not to mention remarkably low poll numbers.

Everything that Senator Kerry said or did after that, every policy he proposed or debate that he won, was still forced to contend with a narrative that was so powerful he simply couldn't overcome it.

Successful narratives are the basis of all winning campaigns. And the 2012 Obama campaign playbook should take a page out of Bush '04 and define Romney early and often as exactly what he is: ...[this section intentionally left blank].

Successful narratives emotionally connect with and engage people, they need characters, a plot and a moral or a solution to the problem.

Think back to Obama 08. The emotion was natural; the narrative was obvious. People were engaged and the solution was a new direction -- change.

Everything needs to flow from this. If your narrative is weak, it will be defined for you. And as Governor Romney is learning, his narrative (which he created) is being amplified for him.

When the 2012 election recaps are written pundits may look toward the improving economy or the fired-up Democratic base or the fractured Republican primary that led to an Obama victory.

But after the election, when Mitt Romney is drawing down one of his off shore accounts he would do best to reflect on the loss of his own created narrative.

Unfortunately for him, no one is having a failure communicating it.

 

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11:29 PM on 03/09/2012
So sad to say that everything they attacked Obama for (the gloom scenario) is going against them. But Mitt's dullness and lack of clear direction plus his ho-hum character cannot carry him past the GOP nomination.
08:18 PM on 02/20/2012
Three things I’ve learned from the GOP primaries so far: 1.) Santorum will stand awkwardly close to get my vote. 2.) That gay sheriff from Pinal County had a certain inevitability to it. 3.) Conservatives weighing this GOP field are trembling nearly as much as the 99% eyeing the roof carrier on Romney’s limousine. Speaking of people around politics trying to make a tough sell, enjoy this funny YouTube video about “Obama’s Secret Service†-- http://tinyurl.com/6sevqsj
08:17 PM on 02/20/2012
you are so full of the stuff that litters public toilets and pastures. MITT ROMNEY IS THE MAN!!!
10:38 PM on 02/22/2012
If nominate, this phony will NEVER garner full Conservative support. That and his liberal record will cost him the election.

I will not, under any circumstances, for for ANOTHER RINO nominee. You are disturbingly naive.
Jay Haney
My nuclear family imploded when I was 18. I've bee
08:16 PM on 02/20/2012
Well, Santorum is a lot more genuine, but he suffers from foot-in-mouth disease so badly that I doubt El Presidente will have much trouble sussing him out. As for Romney, well, he's got enough money to keep going. It'll be interesting to see if Rick can match him, step-for-step.
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Norma Ward
07:40 PM on 02/20/2012
Here is a look at the billionaire donors contributing to Romney's Restore Our Future Super PAC:

http://viableopposition.blogspot.com/2012/02/billionaire-republicans-who-will.html

For the month of January 2012, Restore Our Future raised an average of $213,000 per day.