*** Exit polls from Pennsylvania are below, but click here for complete Pennsylvania results and fallout. ***
The first round of the (notoriously unreliable) Pennsylvania exit polls show Hillary Clinton leading Barack Obama by 52-48. The Pennsylvania Democratic Party is expecting an enormous 52 percent turnout tonight, compared to 26 percent in 2004.
Once again, exit polls are splitting on gender lines:
Women: Clinton 55; Obama 44
Men: Clinton 47; Obama 53
National Review is reporting that some Pennsylvania exit polls show tonight could be an upset:
Hold on to your hats. I've gotten the usual word of the exit poll results from one of my usual reliable sources. He notes that Obama traditionally over-performs in the earliest exit polls, and that he expects the numbers to change as the night wears on - perhaps a reversal.
But right now, the exits are saying Obama 52 percent, Clinton 47 percent.
Take these results with the usual grains of salt and skepticism. I'm told that Obama is carrying blue collar workers two to one, and he's winning Philadelphia in the neighborhood of three to one.
More exit poll details from CBS, via Marc Ambinder:
The exit polls show a smaller percentage of late deciders -- 23% -- than in previous states. The economy mattered most to 54% of voters. (TV news reports say that Clinton won these folks.)
The change versus experience question has been settled: 49% said change was their top vote-generating quality, versus 26 percent who said experience was.
About 15% of the electorate was made up of new voters. 37% are gun owners.
Still petulant: more than 60% of Clinton voters say they wouldn't be happy if Obama were the nominee; about half of Obama voters say the same. 25% of Clinton supporters say they'd vote for McCain in the general election; 17% of Obama supporters say they'd vote for McCain in the general election. Still, 57% of Pennsylvanians believed that Sen. Clinton "attacked" unfairly compared to 49% who thought Obama did.
And more from CNN -- late deciders tilted towards Clinton:
UPDATE: ABC's Pennsylvania exit polls are reporting that the negative tone of the campaign has taken a toll on both candidates:
As far as campaigning, many discern a negative tone -- and more blame it on Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., than on Barack Obama, D-Ill. Two-thirds of Pennsylvania voters in preliminary exit poll results say Clinton attacked Obama unfairly; fewer, but still about half, also say Obama unfairly attacked Clinton.
Also:
Despite who wins in Pennsylvania, overall expectations are on Obama's side -- more than half in these preliminary results say they expect him, not Clinton, to be the party's eventual nominee.
Just under half of Pennsylvania Democratic voters have a college degree, about the same as in all other primaries so far this year -- and more than Ohio's 38 percent.
UPDATE: Ben Smith reminds people to be extra cautious of early Pennsylvania exit polls:
And on Obama's past success in exit polls:
Obama almost always does well in the leaked, unweighted exit polls, and almost always does less well in the final results.
UPDATE: Even more exit poll data, highlighting gender, race, education and income:
race and age:
white 18-29 53-47 clinton
white 30-44 53-47 clinton
white 45-59 59-41 clinton
blacks 92-8 obamaeducation:
high school 65-35 clinton
some college 50-49 obama
college grad 55-45 obama
postgrad 54-46 obamafamily income
under 15K 51-49 obama
15-30k 56-44 clinton
30-50 57-43 clinton
50-75 53-47 clinton
75-100 54-46 obama
100-150 59-39 obama
200 plus 68-32 obama
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Read HuffPost's full coverage of the Pennsylvania primary.
Check out the results of the latests PA Polls.