On Thursday, Charlie Cook of the Cook Political Report came out with a new post predicting trouble for Democrats in the 2010 elections. Based on the latest polls, Cook says, "the situation this summer has slipped completely out of control for President Obama and the Congressional Democrats."
Today, The Cook Political Report's Congressional election model, based on individual races, is pointing toward a net Democratic loss of between six and 12 seats, but our sense, factoring in macro-political dynamics is that this is far too low.
Cook goes on to tie the current troubles to the economy:
That all of this is happening against a backdrop of an economy that appears to be rebounding and a resurgent stock market underscores how much the President's and his party's legislative agenda have contributed to these poor poll numbers.
We believe it would be a mistake to underestimate the impact that this mood will have on Members of Congress of both parties when they return to Washington in September, if it persists through the end of the Congressional recess.
Read more of the Cook Political Report here (subscription only).