POLITICS
05/27/2010 09:56 am ET Updated May 25, 2011

Top Political Prognosticators Predict GOP Unlikely To Take Over House In November

Some of the country's top political forecasters reported Thursday that they disagree with the contention of some top Republicans that midterm elections in November will give the GOP majority control of the House.

Isaac Wood, House Race Editor of renowned political prognosticator Larry J. Sabato's "Crystal Ball" blog, wrote Thursday:

Unlike some analysts, we have never once predicted that Republicans would win enough new House seats to take control of the chamber. They may well do so in November due to the factors with which we're all familiar (a bad economy, sagging presidential popularity, public concern over spending and debt, and so on). But in our eyes, there has been and still is insufficient data to suggest an impending turnover.

Republicans will need to cook up an immense net gain of 39 House seats this November to retake control of the chamber. Though Wood acknowledges "substantial disadvantages" for Democrats, he sees such a gargantuan task as impractical even with Democrats defending five times as more competitive House seats than Republicans.

Wood summarizes their current projections:

At this point, the Crystal Ball believes Republicans would pick up 32 House seats if the midterm election were held today--an increase from our earlier estimate of 27. How do we arrive at the number 32? We have 13 Democratic-held seats clearly leaning to the Republican Party, with 22 more races as pure toss-ups that may well go GOP--minus the three Republican seats tilting to the Democrats.

For more analysis, including helpful graphics, read the full article here: