POLITICS
01/26/2011 12:37 pm ET Updated May 25, 2011

Polls Show Giuliani Presidential Bid Could Succeed If All The GOP Frontrunners Decide To Drop Out Of The Race For Some Reason

Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani famously flamed out of the 2008 presidential race after his "I'm just going to go to Florida and hang out for a bunch of months as the voters slowly forget about me" strategy failed to pan out. But recently, he's been sniffing around the possibility of taking another shot at the White House. Earlier this month, Giuliani told CNBC's Larry Kudlow, "I will take a look at 2012. It's really a question of, can I play a useful role? Would I have a chance of getting the nomination?...Those are things that I'll have to evaluate as the year goes along." Also, as the year goes along, we'll come to the 10th anniversary of Giuliani's "Sputnik moment," September 11th.

So should you take Giuliani's chances seriously? Rasmussen Reports thinks so! They've crunched the numbers and have determined that if certain things break Giuliani's way, he could emerge as the frontrunner. And by, "certain things," they mean, "if all the current frontrunners for the GOP nomination suddenly spontaneously combust, leaving only piles of ash behind":

So what if Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin, Mike Huckabee and Newt Gingrich decide not to run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2012 or their campaigns falter in the early going? Who will the GOP turn to?

That's what Rasmussen Reports asked Likely Republican Primary voters in a new national telephone survey. Not surprisingly the best known of the eight other prominent Republicans mentioned came out on top. Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani emerges as the clear leader among this group with 29% support. Tim Pawlenty, who recently stepped down as governor of Minnesota, comes in second with 17%.

What this glosses over is the fact that according to Giuliani, his decision to get into the race would depend on the contrast he can cast between himself and one of the very frontrunners that would have to not be in the race in the first place to give Giuliani this shot:

Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani gave a little more insight Friday into his calculations regarding a second run at the presidency in 2012, saying he'd be more likely the enter the race if Sarah Palin did, too.

"The more Republicans in which I can show a contrast, probably the better chance, the better chance that I have," Giuliani told CNN's Piers Morgan in an interview set to air Monday at 9 p.m.

"My one chance, if I have a chance, is that I'm considered a moderate," Giuliani added, according to a tweet from Morgan, suggesting that Palin's less compromising conservatism might turn off some Republicans looking for a more centrist presidential candidate.

But, okay, we'll accept Rasmussen's premise that if a bunch of improbable things were to happen, stuff could totally get nuts. In other news, if Black Swan, The Fighter, Inception, The Kids Are All Right, The King's Speech, 127 Hours, The Social Network, Toy Story 3, True Grit and Winter's Bone are all suddenly and unexpectedly deemed ineligible for their Academy Award nominations, it vastly improves Twilight: Eclipse's shot at winning Best Picture.

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What If There Was A GOP Nomination And Nobody Ran? Rudy Giuliani Would Win [New York Daily News]

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