06/03/2011 06:07 pm ET Updated Aug 03, 2011

Mistaken Beliefs 'Outliers'

Mark Mellman says only Romney and Pawlenty are focused appropriately on Iowa or New Hampshire.

Frank Newport counters Mark Halperin on whether we're really down to just 3 GOP candidates.

Pew and The Washington Post find the public unimpressed with Republican candidates.

Daniel Larison and Jonathan Bernstein debate the merits of early polls (via Sullivan).

National Journal's GOP insiders think Romney will win, but aren't too exited about it; Democratic insiders see Romney and Huntsman as the biggest threats to Obama.

Nate Silver explores the inexact relationship between unemployment and presidential reelection.

Jonathan Chait says the Republicans have "convinced themselves of their own pseudo-polls" on the Ryan budget.

Gallup sums up their data on the debt ceiling debate.

Patrick Murray assesses Chris Christie's gender gap in NJ.

Robert Groves explores how to best combine designed with organic data.

Michele Bachmann signs Republican pollster Ed Goeas.

Chris Danella compiles 10 mistaken beliefs Americans hold.