10/3/12 Pollster Open Thread

This open thread is to discuss all of the day's polls -- what they tell us about the election, their methodological strengths and weaknesses, notable findings others have missed or whatever else you want to talk about. Each day's open thread will appear in the morning and remain open for 24 hours. We also encourage you to use the "favorite" button to identify the most interesting or insightful comments.

Tuesday featured comments

"I have not seen a direct study that more Republicans are identifying as independents, it's that while the percentage of poll respondents identifying as indies has increased and Dems slightly decreased, the percentage of respondents identifying as Republican has decreased to a greater degree than Dems. It's true that no one has proven that this shift in numbers can be chalked up solely to former Republicans identifying as indies, it makes the most sense given the numbers. As for Ohio, if early voting trends hold, a 9 point swing to the GOP would roughly increase the total GOP vote by 3 points. This trend may not hold, and it may not reflect what will happen with election day voters. It could hold and represent an advantage for the GOP. We do not know at this point." - Brent Asseff

"Victim of redistricting. The UT legislature is so very, very republican, it was unlikely Matheson would be able to survive. He used to represent UT-2, which was basically the east side of the state + Salt Lake city proper. The dem vote in the city usually gave him just enough to counter act the very republican but low population rural area he had. UT-4 is Salt Lake west and south suburbs, so territory that's probably slightly more moderate but without the extremes and more importantly he's an unknown quantity there. He's actually doing pretty well considering." - AaronTX