According to David Rothschild, economist and HuffPost Entertainment's resident prediction guru, the results of the 70th annual Golden Globes don't amount to a hill of beans. To quote the great Frank Drebin, however: This is our hill, and these are our beans. Even if the Golden Globes don't mean anything, they mean something. Ahead, five things the 2013 Golden Globes results could affect on Oscar night, statistics be damned.
Thanks to an abundance of quality films and the shortened voting window, the 85th annual Oscar nominations were some of the most loopy in history: No nods for Ben Affleck, Kathryn Bigelow and Tom Hooper in the Best Director category; major love for "Beasts of the Southern Wild" and "Amour"; acting nominations in each category for "Silver Linings Playbook," putting it in the same sentence as "Reds" and "Network," among other classics. It's crazy up in the AMPAS! And it could get even crazier: Conventional wisdom states that no film can win Best Picture without a corresponding Best Director nomination. That has only happened three times in 84 years of Oscar history, most recently at the 1990 ceremony, when "Driving Miss Daisy" won Best Picture. Yet if there's any film that could become the latest Oscar anomaly, it's "Argo." Many had Affleck's film on the short-list of favorites to win Best Picture before the Oscar nominations were announced, owing to the fact that "Argo" is an audience-pleasing film that paints Hollywood in a great light. No one seems to dislike "Argo," which puts it in better standing than "Lincoln," "Silver Linings Playbook," "Life of Pi" and "Zero Dark Thirty," the other, more polarizing films with Best Editing nominations, and thus, legitimate shots at winning Best Picture.
About that: No film has won Best Picture without a Best Editing nomination since "Ordinary People" turned the trick at the 1981 ceremony. You could argue that Best Editing is an even better Best Picture predictor than Best Director, and "Argo" is among the favorites to win that award. Add in the fact that George Clooney, the de facto King of Hollywood, produced "Argo," and that Affleck is beloved among actors, the largest AMPAS voting block, and Affleck's snub seems less significant than it did on Oscar nomination morning. Not saying, just saying: Don't give "Lincoln" Best Picture just yet.
The Two Locks
Daniel Day-Lewis and Anne Hathaway are expected to win Oscars on Feb. 24, and nothing they said during their acceptance speeches at the Golden Globes changed that. In her speech, Hathaway was charming (she quoted "30 Rock") and reverent; her shout-out to Sally Field felt appropriate and smart. Day-Lewis has been here before, and his speech was nothing short of perfect. He's basically Abraham Lincoln now, all spry and folksy, and he even did the E.T. finger. Give him the Oscar now, now, now.
The Coin Flip
The Best Actress race is down to Jennifer Lawrence vs. Jessica Chastain, and both sparkled at the Golden Globes. When it comes to speeches, give the edge to Lawrence, who quoted "First Wives Club" and made a joke about Harvey Weinstein being a murderer. When it comes to audience-reactions shots, however, Chastain is the clear winner. Expect this one to come down to Oscar night.
Best Supporting Act, huh?
The Best Supporting Actor category is a scrum, and nothing about the Golden Globes result changes that. Christoph Waltz won -- which was great, since he was great in "Django Unchained" -- but (a) he didn't have to go up against Robert De Niro at the Golden Globes and (b) he might not have the same support from the AMPAS that he did three years ago, when he was a Hathaway-like shoo-in. That means a Hollywood lifer like De Niro or Tommy Lee Jones could swoop in and take the trophy. Or maybe not, and Waltz dances off with his second Oscar. Stay tuned.
Crazy thought: Affleck continues his incredible run by winning Best Director at the Directors Guild Awards, putting Steven Spielberg's presumed Oscar win in jeopardy. Without Affleck at the Oscars, however, the category becomes a toss-up, and the beloved Michael Haneke wins -- leaving Spielberg, David O. Russell, Ang Lee and Benh Zeitlin on the sidelines. There's no reason to think this will happen, but no reason to think it won't? As the fake Michael Haneke would say, lol.