Americans are deeply pessimistic about the state of the economy. A Republican poll is deeply pessimistic about the GOP's outreach toward women. And opinions on foreign interventionism may be shifting. This is HuffPollster for Thursday, August 28, 2014.
MOST AMERICANS THINK THE ECONOMY IS PERMANENTLY DAMAGED - Arthur Delaney: "Seven out of ten Americans say the U.S. economy has been permanently damaged by the Great Recession that started at the end of 2007, according to a new poll. When the John J. Heldrich Center for Workforce Development at Rutgers University asked people about the recession in 2009, only 49 percent said the economy had settled into a crappy new normal. The percentage has increased each year since then, hitting 71 percent this summer….Curiously, while only 12 percent of respondents said workers in general were happy with their jobs, 63 percent said they were satisfied with their own jobs. That result is in line with a recent Gallup survey, which found Americans' satisfaction with their job security had reached historic highs." [HuffPost]
And believe next generation will have it worse - Lauren Weber, on the same survey: "Perhaps most strikingly, 16% of respondents agree that job and career opportunities will be better for the next generation than for their own – a drop from the 56% who were optimistic about this measure in 1999 and down even from the 40% who agreed in November 2009, well into the recession." [WSJ]
AMERICANS MORE OPEN TO FOREIGN INTERVENTION - Susan Page: "After years of retrenchment in the wake of two costly wars, a new USA TODAY/Pew Research Center Poll finds that Americans increasingly are open to a larger U.S. role in trying to solve problems around the world. The public remains conflicted over just how much the United States can and should do to address global challenges. But the initial shifts in public opinion could make it easier for President Obama to order more muscular options in striking Islamic State terrorists in Syria and Iraq…In the survey, 39% say the United States does too much in helping solve world problems; 31% say the U.S. does too little. That reflects a significant change from less than a year ago, when in a previous Pew Research Center poll Americans by an overwhelming 51%-17% said the U.S. did too much. A 34-percentage-point gap in November 2013 has narrowed to 8 points now." [USA Today]
But don't see an obligation to act against Russia - Emily Swanson: "Amid increasingly hostile Russian actions, less than one-third of Americans think the United States should defend Ukraine against actual Russian troops, a new HuffPost/YouGov poll shows. According to the survey, only 29 percent of Americans think the U.S. has a responsibility to defend Ukraine in the case of a Russian invasion, while 38 percent think it does not. Another 33 percent said they're not sure." [HuffPost]
REPUBLICAN POLL FINDS WOMEN VIEW GOP AS OUT OF TOUCH - Marina Fang: "A new internal Republican report confirmed that women are not fans of the GOP, and Republicans have more work to do if they want the female vote. The report, which was obtained by Politico, found that although Republicans have tried to improve outreach to female voters, women still believe the party is 'stuck in the past' and 'intolerant.' Forty-nine percent of women polled for the report looked on the GOP unfavorably. Only 39 percent felt that way about the Democratic Party. The study was commissioned by two conservative groups: Karl Rove's Crossroads GPS and the American Action Network….The report drew its conclusions from focus group discussions and a poll of 800 registered women voters. " [HuffPost]
Does it matter for midterms? Margie Omero (D): "[H]ere's a tough question for the left. Can Republicans still be successful even as they continue to alienate a majority of the electorate? In midterms, the answer is undoubtedly yes. Examining official midterm exit polls since 1982 shows women alone have never determined a Democratic wave or prevented a Republican one. Women voted Democratic in the 1994 Gingrich-fueled wave. Both men and women voted Democratic in 2006 and then Republican in 2010. In fact, you would be hard-pressed to find a midterm election in which women and men voted for different parties (just two in the last 30 years: 1994 and 1998). Now, this pattern may not matter much this cycle, since these are national House race exit polls, and the biggest battles in 2014 are a handful of Senate contests. But these results suggest women are not controlling our national political dialogue, despite their majority status." [HuffPost]
WHY SCOTT WALKER MIGHT NOT BE TRAILING IN WISCONSIN - Harry Enten: "Republican candidates typically poll better among likely voters, particularly in midterm elections when Democratic-leaning constituencies are less likely to turn out. This fact of Americans politics is why a poll released in Wisconsin on Wednesday was so weird. According to the latest Marquette University Law School poll, Wisconsin’s Republican governor, Scott Walker, is losing his re-election bid against Democrat Mary Burke by 2 percentage points among likely voters but winning by 3 points among registered voters. Which is right? Chances are, the results from the registered voter sample are closer to the truth — Walker is probably slightly ahead...It’s important to remember there is nothing magical about a likely voter screen. Marquette chooses a simple screen: Those who say they are absolutely certain to vote in November. Marquette could just as easily choose to include participants who say they are very likely to vote." [538]
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THURSDAY'S 'OUTLIERS' - Links to the best of news at the intersection of polling, politics and political data:
-Sean Trende says it's too early to know if 2014 will be a Republican wave year. [RCP]
-Amy Walter asks why we're waiting for a wave. [Cook Political]
-Sam Wang argues Senate Democrats are outperforming expectations. [Princeton Election Consortium]
-Franklin & Marshall finds Tom Wolf (D) with a wide lead over Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Corbett (R). [Franklin & Marshall]
-Americans think health insurance subsidies should be available on federal exchanges. [YouGov]
-Americans narrowly support unions, but overwhelmingly approve of right-to-work laws. [Gallup]
-Americans are twice as likely to say they "strongly disapprove" of Obama as they are to say they "strongly approve." [Gallup]
-Derek Willis finds the two senators most willing to vote against their party. [NYT]
-Alan Abramowitz argues nominating libertarians won't help Republicans win more of the youth vote. [Sabato's Crystal Ball]
-Amelia Thomson-Deveaux looks into why it's so hard to measure the effect of legislation on abortion rates in Texas. [538]
-Brian Arbour outlines his research into why candidates spend so much time talking about what they've already done instead of what they plan to do. [WashPost]
-Jason Linkins is unimpressed by the 2016 polling featuring Mitt Romney. [HuffPost]
-Daniel W. Drezner kicks off the American Political Science Association's annual meeting with 10 ways to troll political scientists. [WashPost]
CORRECTION: An earlier version of this post misidentified Derek Willis' news outlet.