A perfect storm is brewing in the Middle East.
The situation is deteriorating so quickly in Iraq and Israeli occupied territories, that both Israel and the U.S. might just be frantic enough to cobble together a diplomatic version of a "Hail Mary Pass".
Intriguing reports from the European Press - including The Times of London this weekend - may signal radical, innovative steps toward peace in Israel and Iraq.
What is being quietly talked about are plans to finagle a dignified exit - with the help of troops from friendly Arab and Muslim nations.
The ideas - which were once anathema - are being floated (and supported) at the highest levels of the U.S. and Israeli governments. There is even talk in Sunday's New York Times, and from Tony Blair, of getting help from Syria and Iran to prevent the disintegration of the region. And it is clear that the anticipated Baker-Hamilton report will support such a regional solution.
Israel's situation is particularly dire. The Palestinian Provisional Government is unable to maintain authority in Gaza, which is disintegrating into a hellhole ruled by Hamas thugs and criminal gangs. It is in a virtual state of anarchy.
There is practically no police presence. Terrorists continue to lob missiles and dispatch suicide bombers into Israel. There are no jobs. Eighty percent of the population is living on UN relief supplies. There is no electricity or water supply throughout most of the day.
The West Bank is not much better. PLO forces, under moderate President Mahmoud Abbas, are in a tense - and probably losing - power struggle with the radical Islamic Hamas.
Israel, demoralized by the failure of their fabled army in Lebanon and beset by rocket attacks, is about to launch another major invasion of Gaza that will inevitably lead to massive civilian casualties and enflame a new generation of suicide bombers.
Israel and Palestinians are like scorpions stuck in a glass jar stinging each other to death.
As Hamas bolsters up their forces in anticipation of a feared civil war, Abbas is desperate to beef up his Fatah forces with 1,500 Jordanian PLO troops - the well-trained and disciplined Badr Brigade.
It is in the clear interest of both Israel and the U.S. to support a strong, secular Fatah based Palestinian Authority to counterbalance Islamic Hamas. Yuval Diskin, the head of Israel's domestic spy service Shin Beth, warned earlier this week:
"Israel must prepare for a wide military confrontation in the Gaza Strip, if moderate sources in the Palestinian Authority do not get stronger."
"Israel has no good options in Gaza. There only bad options and we need to choose the least bad of all."
But Israel, so far, has balked at allowing Abbas to insert the armed Palestinian Brigade into Gaza. "It's like inviting the wolf into the chicken house to keep things quiet," said one Israeli.
But the debacle in Lebanon at the hands of Hezbollah and the rising power of Hamas - which, unlike the PLO, has refused to accept the existence of Israel - is forcing the Israeli Prime Minister to reconsider.
Last Monday, during their private 45-minute meeting in Washington, President Bush is reported to have formally requested the troop transfer from Jordan. Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert suggested that he would respond favorably to such a request, according to reports in the Telegraph of London.
If the foreign Arab troops were to be interjected into the conflict in Gaza, it would be an elegant gamble and the "least bad" option that Israel has left.
Or it could backfire.
In Iraq the issues are similar. Again, the goal is to bolster a moderate democratically elected government and train local forces. But the Iraqi government does not have the funds or the guns to stabilize its territory.
The solution may inevitably be along the lines that Bush is urging on Israeli. In the past, other Muslim governments offered to send large numbers of solders to help, but they were rebuffed because Bush couldn't accept the idea that they would not be under American command.
Crown Prince Abdullah and other Saudi leaders personally lobbied Bush, seeking to interject a contingent of Arab and Muslim troops. The Iraqi government accepted the plan, but Bush recoiled because the UN would have controlled the special force. The Saudis agreed to place their forces under the command of the Iraqi government, but the U.S. continued to insist on ultimate control.
The Arab and Muslim countries that were willing to provide the troops were not willing to put them under the command of the U.S. led coalition," said a senior Iraqi security official quoted in Newsday.
"In many of these nations, there was too much domestic pressure... to justify putting their troops under U.S. control."
This was a missed opportunity for the United States to have friendly Sunni-Arab nations share the burden in Iraq. Presently none of the 160,000 coalition troops in Iraq are from religious Muslim countries.
But like Olmert, Bush is now in a weakened position and does not have the luxury of much choice. He can't completely withdraw the troops without inciting an all-out bloody civil war and inevitable genocide, with hundreds of thousands - if not millions - of civilian casualties.
If we pull out precipitately and leave a vacuum, the blame for the bloodbath will fall rightly on the U.S. The foreseeable consequence will be an Iraq dominated by Shiite-Iranian militants, who have long dreamed of a Pan-Iranian empire stretching to Egypt and the Mediterranean Sea.
Needless to say, this is not a comforting thought to other non-Shiite Muslim nations, or to Israel.
Prevailing thinking now is that Bush plans to send in more troops, in one last push to stabilize the worsening situation. But the overwhelming public opinion and the political climate are probably too strongly opposed for such a move to be implemented.
One bottom line is that, in this day and age, occupations don't work anymore. Both the U.S. and Israel are learning that to put down indigenous anti-occupation terrorists, you have to be so brutal to the civilian population that your own people won't stand for it.
With minicams and YouTube, everyone knows everything. It's all reality TV. War crimes and torture are instantly broadcast throughout the world. War is horrible and armies have always done horrible things, but with the whole world watching, that can't happen anymore. Technology will bring us peace.
This development, and the all too visible carnage, explains why Israel and the US may be forced to find a new resolve to act like sober adults, instead of teenagers in a schoolyard brawl. The U.S. needs to talk to Syria and Iran, and enlist the strategic aid of other Arab and Muslim nations - Jordan, Turkey, Egypt, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia - who would benefit from a stable Middle East.
There is simply no other way out.
jfleetwood@aol.com