10/08/2010 02:11 pm ET Updated May 25, 2011

Dr Bob Friday Strong Opinion

I'm now 12-5-1 on my College Best Bets for the season and I have 8 College Best Bets for Saturday at, including my first two 4-Star Best Bets of the season. I also have Free Analysis on 39 College and 10 NFL games. I don't have a Best Bet on tonight's game, but I have a Strong Opinion and my College Strong Opinions are 56% winners the last 6 years.

Oklahoma State (-24) 44 UL LAFAYETTE 14
Oklahoma State is coming off a thrilling 38-35 win over conference rival Texas A&M and the Cowboys have a game at Texas Tech coming up next week, so this would seem to be a natural flat spot. If it's not then it will be another blowout win by an Oklahoma State team that has won 2 games by 37 points or more already this season. The Cowboys actually do apply to a negative 63-139-4 ATS road letdown situation but UL Lafayette applies to a negative 23-61-2 ATS letdown situation that is based on their upset win at North Texas. Lafayette won't be able to stop Oklahoma State's potent attack that is averaging 537 yards at 52 points per game and Lafayette's offense isn't good enough to do much damage in this game, as the Ragin Cajuns have averaged just 5.1 yards per play despite facing teams that would combine to allow 6.1 yppl to an average team. Oklahoma State is a bit better than average defensively (5.0 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.2 yppl), so it would take a major letdown for the Cowboys to give up more than 20 points in this game. I like Oklahoma State minus the big points despite the potential letdown, as they simply won't be able to stop themselves from scoring in this game against a ULL defense that's given up 6.0 yppl and 35 points per game to teams that would average just 5.2 ypl and 21 points per game against an average defensive team. I'll consider Oklahoma State a Strong Opinion at -24 points or less.

I have free analysis of 10 NFL games and 39 College games this weekend in the Free Analysis section of my website.