11/05/2008 12:20 pm ET Updated Dec 06, 2017

Actual Vote Margin by Pre-Election Trend Estimate

The plot shows the relationship between our pre-election trend estimate and the vote margin. These are not quite complete data but as of 8:20 AM Wednesday. But I don't  expect large changes. DC is omitted because there was virtually no polling there.
Which states are which you ask? Behold:
How about quantifying the errors? Here is the distribution with descriptive statistics in the plot.
So on average we missed the margin by less than half  percentage point. Most states we got within five points. And a few we missed b more than five points on the margin (or two and a half points or more on each candidate.)
We'll be doing lots more looking at poll performance and how our estimators succeeded and where they failed. But probably not before a nice restorative nap.