An up-to-date analysis of Florida Early Voting & Vote-by-Mail (absentee).
AS OF: 11/07/2016
This will be an on-going report until early voting is over (runs from October 24th to November 6th). The data is provided by the State of Florida, Division of Elections.
TODAY'S ANALYSIS: Over 6.5 million Floridian voters have voted. The record for voting is +8.5M as recorded in 2012. This means we will see historic voting in Florida by the time the election is over. In terms of early voting, 90,102 more Democratic votes were cast than Republican. While Republicans preferred voting by mail (absentee), the Democrats preferred early voting instead. Of the +6.5M votes cast only 2.4% came from "Other Parties" which does not bode well for the Libertarian and Green parties. Independent voters represented a whopping 19.3% of the votes cast, an impressive figure. Tampa Bay remains firmly in GOP hands, yet Hillsborough County remains Democratic. Absentee ballots will continue to come in, but early voting is over. Now we wait for the general election on November 8th. I'll be curious to see what the lines will be like at the voting precincts.
11/06 ANALYSIS: With only one day remaining in early voting, over 6.1 million Florida voters have voted. The Democrats hold a slim lead (33K) in the state. In Tampa Bay, 1.25 million votes have been cast and, of these, the Republicans remain firmly in control. Even in Hillsborough County, which has been Democratic for several days, there is an influx of Republican votes cast. It will be interesting to see what the final tally will be tomorrow (Monday, Nov 7th).
11/05 ANALYSIS: Over 5.7 million Florida voters have voted, representing an influx of +827K votes, and pushing the Democratic votes cast 7K more than the GOP in the state. However, if last weekend's data is any indicator, Republicans like to vote on the weekend, so it will be interesting to see what these last two days of voting produce. Nonetheless, the state will easily pass 6M voters and probably the 7M mark, thereby establishing new records. In Tampa Bay, with the exception of Hillsborough County, the region remains in Republican hands with over 1M votes cast. Again, the number of Independent voters continues to swell (now over 1M in the state) while other parties stagnate.
11/04 ANALYSIS: Over 4.9 million Florida voters have voted. "Voted early" numbers are increasing as we go into the last three days of pre-voting. In Tampa Bay, Republican votes are pulling away from the Democrats with the exception of Hillsborough County; however, even there GOP voting is increasing.
11/03 ANALYSIS: Over 4.8 million Florida voters have voted. Wednesday saw in influx of voting, mostly from Democrats; over 400K in total voted. Only three more days of early voting and, at this rate, there will be easily in excess of 6M voters (and remember, the record is 8.5M). Republicans still hold the lead in the state and in the Tampa Bay area where over one million voters have voted. With the exception of Hillsborough County, where Democrats dominate, the rest of Tampa Bay remains in Republican hands. Voters for "Other Parties" remains at a very slow pace, and independents are still growing.
11/02 ANALYSIS: Over 4.4 million Florida voters have voted. Of that, nearly 1 million voters are from the Tampa Bay area, making it a formidable voting block. In the state, and Tampa Bay, the number of GOP voters are slowly pulling away from Democrats. The one exception remains Hillsborough County where the Democrats have a solid lead.
11/01 ANALYSIS: Monday saw a huge influx of votes in Florida, both "Vote-by-Mail" (absentee) and "Voted Early." More than four million Floridians have voted, which is rapidly approaching 50% of the total votes in 2012 (8.5M). There is little doubt Florida will set a record this year. In Florida overall, the GOP continues to hold on to the lead, as well as in Tampa Bay with the exception of Hillsborough County which has more Democrats voting.
10/31 ANALYSIS: After the weekend, more than 3.7 Floridians have voted. The GOP still holds on to a slim lead in the state, but a larger one in Tampa Bay (with the exception of Hillsborough where Democrats are dominating). As there was no mail on Sunday, there were only minor changes to the "Voted-by-Mail" (absentee) numbers. "No Party" (independents) continue to surge while "Other" parties have sharply diminished.
10/30 ANALYSIS: More than 3.5 million voters have voted in Florida. The big news in Florida and Tampa Bay is the influx of Republican Early Voters who voted on Saturday, thereby pushing up their numbers and taking the lead in Florida and Tampa Bay. The one exception remains Hillsborough County where the Democrats still lead, even though Republicans showed up to vote.
10/29 ANALYSIS: More than 3 million voters have voted. This trend is moving towards a new historical level. Republicans hold a slim lead in the state. More than 500K independent voters ("Other") have voted. In Tampa Bay, the GOP holds on to a slim lead. With the exception of Pinellas County, "Voted-by-Mail (absentee) appears to be slowing. In Hillsborough, the Democrats have seized the lead and are pulling away. The rest of Tampa Bay remains in Republican hands.
10/28 ANALYSIS: Voter turnout is quickly approaching 3 million. GOP and Democrats continue close contest with Republicans holding a slight edge in Florida overall. "Other" Parties voting has slow down considerably while "No Party" voters (independents) continue to surge. The Democrats are pulling ahead in Hillsborough County; but the rest of Tampa Bay is leaning Republican.
10/27 ANALYSIS: Approximately 2.5 million Floridians have already voted. Republicans and Democrats are neck-and-neck in both Florida and the Tampa Bay area. Republicans lead the Vote-by-Mail (absentee), and Democrats lead in early voting. "Other parties" are small by comparison, but the wild card is "No Party" representing independents.
Keep the Faith!
Note: All trademarks both marked and unmarked belong to their respective companies.
For Tim’s columns, see: timbryce.com
Copyright © 2016 by Tim Bryce. All rights reserved.