Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid already had a lot of things on his plate to get done in the Senate this year, even before last week's news broke. Now he's facing two more big issues in the midst of an election year (and in the midst of a fight for his own political life in Nevada) -- a new nuclear arms reduction treaty with Russia, and an upcoming confirmation battle over a Supreme Court nomination. Given that Harry Reid's Senate is not exactly known for moving with blinding speed (to be fair, few Senates are), one has to wonder whether Harry Reid can deliver on some of these big issues before the midterm elections or not.
The three major issues which Reid presently faces are the "New START" treaty, the Supreme Court nomination battle, and Wall Street reform. There are other issues just as large (and just as confrontational) which conventional Washington wisdom has already decided Reid isn't even going to tackle in an election year (comprehensive immigration reform and a new energy policy, to name two of the biggest), although it must be said that politics is always fluid, so this conventional wisdom may prove wrong by November. Add to this the regular issues which the Senate must deal with (such as the budget), as well as pressing political problems like jobs legislation, and it's pretty easy to see that Reid faces an overwhelming list of things to do this year.
Which means that a lot of the focus in Washington this year is going to be centered squarely on the Senate. Nancy Pelosi's House has shown that it is much quicker and more productive, passing dozens of good bills (many with widespread Republican support), which have then done nothing but languish in the Senate. This backlog adds even further to Reid's "to do" list. To be fair, the House does not have such constitutional duties as ratifying treaties or confirming judges. Because the Senate does, and because it faces one of each right now, it is just going to shrink the available time for the Senate to act on legislative issues this year.
Just considering the three highest-priority items on that list currently, it's easy to see how they could eat up most (or all) of the Senate's time between now and Election Day. Wall Street reform is the first of these scheduled for a showdown on the Senate floor. And -- much like the health reform bill -- this is a huge and complicated issue, with plenty of room for watering things down and inserting loopholes in the fine print. Which is exactly what both Republicans and Democrats who have sold their soul to the banking industry are going to attempt. If they don't kill the bill outright, that is, or delay it endlessly until Reid cries "Uncle!" and shelves the whole debate.
To be blunt, Reid's performance in the health reform struggle does nothing to inspire confidence that the donnybrook over Wall Street reform will be any different. To Reid's credit, on health reform, he did finally deliver. About nine months late, but given the constraints he was working under (especially when Democrats lost the filibuster-proof majority they theoretically had), putting anything at all on the president's desk was indeed a big achievement. But this time, we don't have those extra nine months. And the constraints Reid faced then have not gone away. Which leaves passage of any meaningful Wall Street reform a real open question, at this point.
The next big, contentious issue on Reid's schedule will be shepherding President Obama's Supreme Court pick through the confirmation process. This fight will be different for two reasons. The first is that, ultimately, it is a binary choice for senators to make -- either "yea" or "nay." Unlike a legislative battle, where changing a paragraph here or there can gain you some votes, with a court nominee you're either going to be for him or her, or against him or her -- there's no middle ground. The second reason this fight will be different is that it will have a real and concrete deadline. Justice John Paul Stevens is stepping down at the end of the Supreme Court's current term, and the Senate really is going to need to act before the next term begins -- which happens before the election. Meaning Harry Reid is going to face a deadline he won't be able to ignore. And, so far, he hasn't been all that impressive about meeting deadlines lately -- although (again, to be fair) he did manage to do so the last time he faced this situation, confirming Sonia Sotomayor in a timely enough fashion for her to join the high court before its term began last year.
The third big issue Reid faces will be the Senate exercising their constitutional duty to ratify (or reject) the New START treaty which President Obama just signed. However, there is no real deadline on treaty ratification (at least, not as far as I know -- there may be such a deadline in the language of the treaty itself). What this means is that if Harry Reid has to "punt" any of these three issues past the election itself, this is going to be the prime candidate to get put off.
The Senate returned to work today, after a two-week vacation. Or, as they officially and euphemistically call it, a "State Work Period" (even though they are fooling precisely nobody with this cheerfully Orwellian label). From today until Election Day dawns, the Senate has a further seven weeks of vacation time scheduled (so far). That's one week for Memorial Day, one week for Independence Day, and five whole weeks for the "August In D.C. Is So Hellish Month." And these are just the vacation periods scheduled so far (the "tentative" schedule currently says nothing about post-Labor Day vacations). Which is not to say that they aren't going to take a big chunk of October off, to go home and campaign their little hearts out. In the last two midterm election years (2006 and 2002), the Senate took off six weeks and three weeks, respectively. In particular, 2006 was a relaxed and leisurely year for the Senate, as they worked precisely one week in all of October and November combined (a six-week election break was followed by one week of work, then two weeks off for Thanksgiving -- nice work, if you can get it, eh?).
Taken together, the two weeks for holidays, the five weeks in August, and the (likely) four weeks or so before the election where the Senate won't be in session, the schedule leaves only a little over four months' worth of actual working time to get anything done. The Supreme Court pick is likely going to eat up roughly a month of this time, possibly more. Wall Street reform is going to take at least a month or two (and that is being wildly optimistic, I should add). Even if Reid punts on the treaty ratification, it's easy to see that the calendar is going to be an awfully tough one for Senate Democrats to get much done outside of the major issues this year. Which puts even more pressure on them to deliver on the major issues themselves, I should add.
Congressional Democrats would like to campaign this year on the things they've been able to accomplish. As well as (knock wood) an economy that is visibly getting better for people, of course. So far, the things Democrats have been able to accomplish haven't exactly resonated with the public (health care, the stimulus, etc.). Whether Democratic officeholders have anything else to put before the voters as solid Democratic accomplishments is going to hinge mostly on Reid's performance for the rest of this year.
If Harry Reid can manage to produce, he may improve his own currently-dismal re-election chances in Nevada, as well as give the Democratic voter base a reason to get enthusiastic about voting in November. But, if Reid cannot deliver, a lot of Democrats are going to be sucked down on Reid's "coattails" come Election Day. Now, obviously, there are other factors at play in this election season -- which, like all midterms, is problematic for the president's party -- but Harry Reid could either give Democrats a real boost in their chances at the polls by delivering a few big wins (and, one hopes, a whole bunch of smaller wins), or he could squander this opportunity and not provide legislative victories for Democrats to tout on the campaign trail.
Harry Reid has the rest of this year to produce some solid Senate victories. And the question remains: Can Harry Reid actually deliver? For many Democrats, the answer to this question is a whole lot more than merely academic, and may in fact mean quite a bit to their own chances in the upcoming election.
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