What Happens Next?

You might think that jazz is ad hoc and does not require rehearsals. It does, just like business performance benefits from rehearsing and preparing.
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I was privileged recently to attend an evening of New Orleans jazz featuring Wynton Marsalis and Eric Clapton playing together in Manhattan's Jazz at Lincoln Center. Each of the principals noted that in spite of all of their years of experiences, they rehearsed several days together to create an innovative and smooth concert. You might think that jazz is ad hoc and does not require rehearsals. It does, just like business performance benefits from rehearsing and preparing. Knowing what your colleague will do and the context of performance will change what you do.

On a macro level, business men and women must understand the signals that exist today shaping the direction and scope of innovation necessary to thrive. The more macro or demographic trends you know, the better you will be able to anticipate what happens next.

Vivian Reifberg, a director at McKinsey & Company, spoke about the five forces that will shape the coming decade. (She gave me permission to share the research with others through my newsletter.) As we think about these major economic, social and political changes, we must also make sure that our co-workers and business partners become better prepared to execute our business strategies.

  1. The great rebalancing between emerging and developed markets is occurring. More workers and fewer mouths to feed create more disposable income in many emerging markets. During the next 10 years, more people will exit poverty than ever before. Emerging markets will account for more than 50 percent of the global economic growth over this decade. Companies need to figure out how to win with both cutting-edge products as well as ultra low-cost products to address the demands of different market places.

  • The productivity imperative demands that the best companies will learn how to maximize returns from people who think for a living and will need to reinvent work -- what, where, when, how, who and why. In the 1970s, labor force growth in the U.S. generated roughly 80 cents of every 1 gain in GDP, and productivity generated the rest. In the upcoming decade, with a shrinking and graying workforce, productivity will need to drive Gross Domestic Product growth of more than 1 percent in developed countries.
  • The global grid of trade and information is changing the way we do business. There are over 5.2 billion cell phones and 2 billion people online in the world today. This fundamentally changes the speed with which we gain or send information and the type and accuracy of that information. For instance, in Kenya, where the per capita income is about 1,000, many people use a mobile phone as a credit card. The information grid makes every company a global company, no matter how small.
  • Pricing the planet means knowing how to value and obtain natural resources and to use them as stewards of the future. Pricing will be a challenge as increased regulatory and social scrutiny on environmental responsibility occurs. Demand for natural resources is greater than the supply. The demand for food and water will continue to grow. Predictions are that by 2030 the demand for water will be 30 percent greater than the supply --unless there is innovation.
  • The market state, also known as state capitalism, developed even before the financial crisis prompted large-scale direct government intervention as some governments tried to deal with the negative effect of globalization on individual citizens. Governments of developed and developing countries are pressured to supply more services with less revenue. The penalties for failure to change have never been higher. Just as states will be competing for jobs and growth, business men and women will need to select the right nations to partner with to create a competitive advantage for their companies.
  • The enormous transformative effect from these forces will be huge. We must innovate to master these fundamental shifts occurring in our interconnected world. Even the most experience leaders need to develop the skill to place more and bolder bets with their employees, investors, suppliers, customers and communities in order to be prepared and to create a harmonious result. Using jazz as a metaphor helps me understand that predictability and success does not happen by accident.

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