This blog has repeatedly called attention recently to the deterioration in Syria with regard to the increasing role of Iran and its subordinates there, their outright and blatant warnings against Israel, the Israeli show of concern about that, the American indifference and the Russian clear and aggressive message to Israel not to do anything against the Iranian build-up. The combination of all these factors create a volatile situation, and volatile situations in Syria can spread beyond its borders and become a regional powder keg. Well, tonight , according to multiple reports, the Israeli Air Force did what it is known to do so well, and destroyed the base in Masyaf, near Hamma , in Central Syria where the Iranians and Syrians were developing and storing chemical weapons alongside missiles whose range could cover every strategic target in Israel. While, before and after the attack, the IDF is conducting large scale ground exercises aimed as the official communiques tell us, at thwarting any attempt by Hizballah to react/retaliate by attacking Israel. Also, as all this is happening, Israeli leaders keep repeating their well-orchestrated campaign of very specific threats to prevent at all cost any Iranian lasting build up in Syria. Maybe by coincidence, the attack happened ten years to the night of the alleged Israeli attack on the Syrian nuclear site in East Syria. Altogether, the Israeli action seems to be both an effective military action but also a timely reminder of the credibility and reliable deterrence of Israel
After the signing of the Iran nuclear deal, following a long and very pointed Israeli campaign, led personally by PM Netanyahu , nothing really happened, and Netanyahu personally looked like a paper tiger, full of rhetoric, some said hot air, but with no readiness to follow suit his verbal belligerency with actions. The Israeli leader made repeated visits to Moscow, to plead with Vladimir Putin, the final arbiter of the Syrian situation, a role that once was reserved to the US, in order to have the Russians act against their Iranian allies, but to no avail, as the Russians made it very clear, that they are the ones to decide about what constitutes a danger to Israel in Syria, not the Israelis themselves. This was a direct, very specific challenge to Netanyahu personally and to Israel, and the Israelis seem to have responded in kind. That said, there is always the day after. Israel, and Netanyahu personally, should be cautioned not to engage in a public celebratory line of statements, in order to evade any sense of humiliation in Moscow, as well as in Tehran and Damascus, though the Syrians officially recognized the attack and Israel’s role in it.
Those who follow the public side of Russian policy in Syria noticed, that the message to Israel fell short of a concrete threat of retaliation in case of an Israeli attack on the Iranian build up, but they definitely have the capability to respond, though the likelihood of it happening is very low, in fact near zero. Their response can come by cutting off any coordination with the Israelis about Syria, something which existed until now, and in such a way, raises the stakes for the Israelis if and when they plan more actions in Syria. They can and probably will increase their aerial intelligence activities, though what happened last night may signal, that the Israelis have an operational way of evading and overcoming it. There may be sharper rhetoric, perhaps a message to the Trump administration to reign in on Israel, and a possible approach to the Security Council which may lead to nothing. Putin watchers claim, that the Russian leader respects force and will look at the Israeli action from that perspective, understanding that the action can become the trigger to a new, more reasonable cooperation with Israel in Syria, designed to better address Israeli concerns over the Iranian build-up there. Somehow it seems, that Putin will use sharp rhetoric, but refrain from any action, which will lead to a large -scale out of control military escalation. There is no guarantee, that this is what is in store, so a state of tension is now in place, and the Israelis, in particular, will have to be very careful. Surely Mr.Assad will have to be very careful. He is totally vulnerable to the unmatched Israeli aerial superiority, and while he can retaliate by sending missiles, or encouraging Hizballah to cause provocations, he will do much better for himself if he will swallow the bitter pill, and console himself with his latest achievement in the civil war, which is the breaking of the rebels siege on Deir A zor in East Syria. Hizballah and the Iranians themselves are also not likely to directly retaliate, but the overall situation is very fragile.
The Israeli aerial attack was in line with their very clear rhetoric, and so it remains to be seen what the other parties will do in line with their rhetoric. We are in the midst of a very tense period.