POLITICS
07/31/2016 09:44 am ET Updated Dec 23, 2016

Hillary Clinton Is Probably Getting A Convention Bounce In The Polls

Wait a couple of weeks for the polls to settle before assessing the state of the race.

The first post-Democratic convention polls are coming out, and it looks like Hillary Clinton is regaining the advantage over Donald Trump. Trump came up in the polls last week after the Republican convention, but since the focus was on the Democrats all of last week, this week’s new polls will likely reverse that trend.  

And just as with last week’s polls, you shouldn’t get too excited or upset about sudden shifts. Convention bounces are common, and often temporary, as we previously reported:

Conventions have often resulted in small to medium polling bumps for the candidate whose party just convened. The gatherings typically help unify the parties, particularly if there were divisive primaries ― which both Democrats and Republicans experienced this year. They also usually correspond to vice presidential candidate announcements, which might (or might not) help the candidate.

Trump moved into the lead in several polls last week, but not all post-RNC polls showed a bounce for the Republican candidate. In general, he seemed to gain a few points off the convention, and it was enough to make the race nearly tied in the HuffPost Pollster averages, regardless of whether third-party candidates were included in the polls.

Now that Clinton and the Democrats have had their turn, the polls are likely to show her in the lead, although the main question will be by how much. Some polls might not show a shift in the race. We’ll have to wait a few days to find out.

If it becomes clear that Clinton’s convention bounce is substantially larger than Trump’s was, that’s probably a good sign for Democrats. If it’s about the same size as Trump’s, expect the race to remain very close.

Poll-based forecast models will jump around in response to the polls. Don’t get worked up over those either this week.

Instead, wait until mid-August to see where the race really stands.

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