Our robot overlords are coming, but will they be a boon for our economy, or herald its destruction?
Science fiction usually examines how robots could kill us existentially, by calling our uniqueness into question, or literally, by refusing to open the pod bay doors, but economic destruction could be far more efficient and devastating. If we aren't careful about how we integrate robots into our economy, they could end up compromising our entire system--but on the other hand, if we're smart, they could put all our economic concerns to rest once and for all.
Let's examine how robots could affect a number of economic areas, and the broader implications for those effects.
The World Economic Forum is predicting what's being called the "Fourth Industrial Revolution," driven by technologies like artificial intelligence, 3D printing, nanobots, genetics, biotechnology, and other robotics areas. By the year 2020, an estimated 5 million jobs are predicted to be replaced by machines. And that's on top of the jobs that have already been taken over by machines; up until this point, most job replacements have been in manual labor and simple tasks, but over the next several years, these replacements will shift toward more intellectually intensive, traditionally "white collar" jobs.
The flip side is that new jobs will be created by increased demand for these technologies--but at a much more modest rate of 2 million jobs. That leaves a shortfall of 3 million jobs in the next 4 years. So what economic implications would that have?
It means fiercer competition for any available human positions, and increased demand in STEM sectors. It's a manageable transition, from a broad economic perspective, but this is only short-term thinking; we're on pace to destroy countless more jobs as we progress to 2030, 2040, and even further out.
There are some broader economic benefits to this job displacement, however. For starters, companies will save money and increase productivity, meaning they'll be able to produce more and charge less (at least hypothetically). A wage shortfall could therefore be better tolerated by working populations.
There are a lot of potential effects here, both positive and negative, so it could go in a number of different directions.
Our capitalist society is centralized, in many ways, around the stock market, where shares of public companies are freely traded. When stock prices collapse, the broader economy suffers (like in the 2008 financial crisis), and when they rise, the economy rises.
Here's the problem; stock prices change based on the actions of investors, and investors are gradually being replaced with automated trading algorithms. Already, these robotic traders have caused "flash crashes" that disrupt market trading beyond our control; if these algorithms become more commonplace and publicly controlled, they could hypothetically have massive implications for the direction of our economic growth.
It's also important to note that advances in robotics can (and should) provide us with more resources necessary to live our lives, making it cheaper to exist. Suitably advanced systems could easily harness enough renewable energy from the sun, automatically grow and harvest crops, and possibly even discover better ways to utilize resources. The only potential problem here is withholding these technologies in search of greater profit--which I'll explore momentarily.
With this information, I speculate there are three key "doomsday" scenarios in which the rapid advancement of robotics could disrupt our economy.
- Robots replace too many jobs before we can stabilize a jobless economy. First, robots replace so many jobs--before we can prepare for the realities of a "true" jobless economy--that a substantial portion of the country/world is unable to work and make a living wage.
Robots collapse capitalism before we can suitably adapt. Second, robotic algorithms (possibly combined with the implications of higher unemployment) causes a massive downward spiral for the stock market, crushing our capitalistic system before we have a suitable replacement. Robotics creates a class system that rewards its creators before it goes open-source. Revolutionary resource-harvesting technology is withheld by its profiteering creators, before standards are put in place to make such technology open source and available to the public. Notice a thread of commonality in the three major doomsday scenarios I outlined above; the critical use of the word "before." Each of these scenarios can be averted by recognition and preparatory measures by our top minds (of both robotics and corporate worlds). Already, technological leaders like Elon Musk and Bill Gates are striving to prepare us for the new realities of an AI-filled world; we just have to keep that momentum going faster than our rate of robotics development. There's no scenario for economic collapse that can't be averted by the same minds potentially responsible for unleashing it.
Our 2024 Coverage Needs You
It's Another Trump-Biden Showdown — And We Need Your Help
The Future Of Democracy Is At Stake
Our 2024 Coverage Needs You
Your Loyalty Means The World To Us
As Americans head to the polls in 2024, the very future of our country is at stake. At HuffPost, we believe that a free press is critical to creating well-informed voters. That's why our journalism is free for everyone, even though other newsrooms retreat behind expensive paywalls.
Our journalists will continue to cover the twists and turns during this historic presidential election. With your help, we'll bring you hard-hitting investigations, well-researched analysis and timely takes you can't find elsewhere. Reporting in this current political climate is a responsibility we do not take lightly, and we thank you for your support.
Contribute as little as $2 to keep our news free for all.
Can't afford to donate? Support HuffPost by creating a free account and log in while you read.
The 2024 election is heating up, and women's rights, health care, voting rights, and the very future of democracy are all at stake. Donald Trump will face Joe Biden in the most consequential vote of our time. And HuffPost will be there, covering every twist and turn. America's future hangs in the balance. Would you consider contributing to support our journalism and keep it free for all during this critical season?
HuffPost believes news should be accessible to everyone, regardless of their ability to pay for it. We rely on readers like you to help fund our work. Any contribution you can make — even as little as $2 — goes directly toward supporting the impactful journalism that we will continue to produce this year. Thank you for being part of our story.
Can't afford to donate? Support HuffPost by creating a free account and log in while you read.
It's official: Donald Trump will face Joe Biden this fall in the presidential election. As we face the most consequential presidential election of our time, HuffPost is committed to bringing you up-to-date, accurate news about the 2024 race. While other outlets have retreated behind paywalls, you can trust our news will stay free.
But we can't do it without your help. Reader funding is one of the key ways we support our newsroom. Would you consider making a donation to help fund our news during this critical time? Your contributions are vital to supporting a free press.
Contribute as little as $2 to keep our journalism free and accessible to all.
Can't afford to donate? Support HuffPost by creating a free account and log in while you read.
As Americans head to the polls in 2024, the very future of our country is at stake. At HuffPost, we believe that a free press is critical to creating well-informed voters. That's why our journalism is free for everyone, even though other newsrooms retreat behind expensive paywalls.
Our journalists will continue to cover the twists and turns during this historic presidential election. With your help, we'll bring you hard-hitting investigations, well-researched analysis and timely takes you can't find elsewhere. Reporting in this current political climate is a responsibility we do not take lightly, and we thank you for your support.
Contribute as little as $2 to keep our news free for all.
Can't afford to donate? Support HuffPost by creating a free account and log in while you read.
Dear HuffPost Reader
Thank you for your past contribution to HuffPost. We are sincerely grateful for readers like you who help us ensure that we can keep our journalism free for everyone.
The stakes are high this year, and our 2024 coverage could use continued support. Would you consider becoming a regular HuffPost contributor?
Dear HuffPost Reader
Thank you for your past contribution to HuffPost. We are sincerely grateful for readers like you who help us ensure that we can keep our journalism free for everyone.
The stakes are high this year, and our 2024 coverage could use continued support. If circumstances have changed since you last contributed, we hope you'll consider contributing to HuffPost once more.
Support HuffPostAlready contributed? Log in to hide these messages.