Over the course of a tumultuous Democratic primary, it was widely assumed that Barack Obama would have major problems recruiting female voters -- particularly Hillary Clinton backers who felt burned by sexism.
An Every Woman Counts campaign poll by Lifetime Networks suggest that while the Illinois Democrat still has some work to do, fears of a female backlash were drastically overstated. If the general election were held today, 49 percent of women voters would cast their ballot for Obama while only 38 percent would back McCain, according to the findings. Ten percent were undecided. Moreover, of the 506 women surveyed, 53 percent had a positive view of Obama compared to 37 percent who had a positive view of McCain. For the sake of comparison, in the 2004 election John Kerry bested George Bush among female voters by a mere three-points: 51 percent to 48 percent.
"The race for women is not deiced yet though they are giving Obama a solid lead," said Democratic pollster Celinda Lake, who helped conduct the study. "The women's vote is Obama's to consolidate. The way to definitively put this election away is to take the vote that he has substantially already and put it over 50 percent."
As for those disaffected Clinton supporters, they too seem to be gradually coming on board the Obama bandwagon. The samples are small, but 76 percent of the 61 female Clinton primary supporters polled said they would continue to vote Democratic in the general election; 16 percent said they would back McCain. The figures rightfully suggest that there are some diehard holdouts. McCain's support comes despite the fact that only two percent of Clinton backers said they were excited about the Arizona Republican.
Within Democratic circles there have been some rumblings that Obama would be ill-advised to pick a female running mate as it would be interpreted as a slap in the face to Hillary backers. But the Lifetime Network findings suggest that the presumptive Democratic nominee could pick someone like Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (or Clinton).
"The majority of women voters polled say gender does not matter," the study's authors note. "Obama's selection of a woman running mate makes no difference to 55% of women voters, and McCain's selection of a woman as his #2 makes no difference to 62%. However, Obama would benefit twice as much as McCain from offering the second slot to a woman (29% [of females are] more likely to support Obama if he picks a woman vs. 15% who would be more likely to support McCain)."
All of which is not to suggest that Obama is in the clear when it comes to the female vote. Work remains to be done. Fourteen percent of those with a mostly positive view of the Democrat said they would nevertheless support McCain. And while Obama is doing well with minority women, with support from 89% of African-Americans and 62% of Hispanics, McCain is besting him among Caucasians, by a margin of 47 percent to 38 percent.
The Lifetime Networks national poll of likely female voters was conducted by Republican pollster Kellyanne Conway of WomenTrend and Democratic pollster Celinda Lake of Lake Research.