Re: One Unanswered Question

An update on my National Journal column last week, in which I wrote:

Obama's central challenge, however, is neither the debate about which candidate can best change Washington nor Clinton's perceived advantage in experience. Rather, the most important question is whether Obama, as that same CBS News/New York Times survey puts it, "has prepared himself well enough for the job of President and all the issues a President has to face," or whether "he needs a few more years to prepare?" A few days after the New Hampshire primary, a majority of Democratic primary voters (53 percent) believed Obama still needed more time; 40 percent said he was ready.

The new CBS News survey released yesterday updates that result, and they show a statistically significant, ten-point increase (from 40% to 50%) in the percentage who say that Obama is "prepared," while the percentage who say he needs more preparation declined from 53% to 46%.

Back in December, CBS News director of surveys Kathy Frankovic provided some additional context for this question:

In September 2000, the Los Angeles Times asked likely voters to say which candidate -- George W. Bush or Al Gore -- “has the best experience for the job.” Sixty-two percent chose Gore, and only 25 percent chose Bush. Likely voters in an October Fox News Poll also chose Gore over Bush, 54 percent to 31 percent, on having the “right kind of experience.”

But while most voters thought Gore had more of the “right” or the “best” experience, a majority had already decided that Bush met the threshold. CBS News had asked registered voters in March of that year whether Bush and Gore each had “the right kind of experience to be a good president.” And for most voters, both of them did. Slightly more (70 percent) said Gore did than said Bush did (62 percent), but Bush had clearly met the experience threshold with nearly two-thirds of voters.