Who is the greater threat to world peace — the Islamic State or Vladimir Putin’s Russia?
The barbarism of ISIS shocks and terrifies us, but it doesn’t threaten international peace. What does? Rogue states with the capacity and willingness to destroy other states.
Despite its name, ISIS is primarily a revolutionary movement. After seizing territory in Syria and Iraq, it began constructing quasi-governmental institutions, but then, in taking on Turkey, Iran, Syria, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the United States, France, and Russia, ISIS committed a monumental strategic error — and is now paying the price.
Although its “statehood” will likely prove ephemeral, ISIS is sure to survive in the underground and continue to engage in terror, especially against its chief adversary, Russia. Terror is an outrage, of course, but it does not threaten world peace, undermine the international order, or entail inter-state war.
“Terror is an outrage, of course, but it does not threaten world peace, undermine the international order, or entail inter-state war.”
Like ISIS, Putin’s Russia is a rogue entity that violates treaties and borders, rejects international norms, sees war as a legitimate means to its great-power ends, and rejects the West and everything it stands for. But unlike ISIS, Putin’s Russia is a bona fide state with a huge army, thousands of nuclear weapons, and the air and sea power to deliver them. Putin Russia annexed Crimea, invaded Georgia and eastern Ukraine, occupies part of Moldova, assassinates regime opponents, routinely violates the air space of its neighbors, and occasionally threatens to incinerate its neighbors.
Tactical anti-ISIS cooperation with Russia may be fleetingly attractive for the United States and Europe, but Putin’s hostility to the post-World War II international system that produced the European Union and consolidated peace in Europe means that Putin Russia can never be a strategic ally of the West.
Putin Russia is an adversary committed to the West’s demise.
The moral for the Trump Administration should be obvious. American support of the non-Russian states that shield the world from Putin’s aggression is critical, as is a continuation of sanctions and U.S. involvement in NATO.
Containing Putin’s expansionist designs is the only winning Western strategy. By prioritizing anti-ISIS tactics over pro-Western strategy, Trump could produce the worst deal of his life.