04/01/2012 01:38 pm ET Updated Jun 01, 2012

Am I Wrong About This?

Yes, of course the president wants his signature health care law upheld by the U.S. Supreme Court... but I suspect (suspect, since no honest person can say he knows) that it would help him politically if the statute were to be struck down in its entirety. This November election could be close and enthusiasm really matters in a close election. So how does he rev up the enthusiasm? Right now he has considerable drag e.g., gas prices.

Striking down the statute could really rev up the president's base -- add fuel to their current political mantra fire about a 'war on women.' I can think of the ads now, can't you? The president's enthusiasm level among his supporters has been sagging -- something that happens during a second term campaign -- and he needs something to throw his weight behind to really drive his supporters to the polls. An existing health care law won't do it since it feels a bit like, 'been there, done it.' Striking the law down, on the other hand, could really be used to put political panic in his supporters.

Plus... if the law is stricken by the U.S. Supreme Court, those current less-than-enthusiastic Republican voters, and the independents furious about health care may not find their way to the polls come November if they have achieved what they already wanted -- getting rid of the health care law. They may feel a bit ho-hum about voting since they got what they wanted.

Of course if some giant international or domestic event happens, health care law will become irrelevant as it gets pushed down our collective radar screen. And of course, much could happen between now and November.

What do you think? Am I wrong? (By the way, people I know who spends lots of time thinking about politics say I am wrong about this one... )

Cross-posted from GretaWire, where it first appeared.