Perhaps it's the advent of the hot, humid summer. Perhaps a function of excessive water-logging perpetuated by the seasonal monsoons. Or maybe justa collective hallucination engendered by ad nauseum power cuts reducing dailylife to a staccato of stills. But there have been disquieting murmurs doing therounds of Pakistan’s political environment. The first has been brilliantlytermed the "minus one, two or three" formula. It suggests getting on withbusiness unusual by banishing key leaders from the political process –President Asif Zardari, co-chairman of the ruling PPP, Nawaz Sharif, leader ofthe PML (N) that sits in opposition, and enjoys public support, and possiblyPrime Minster Yousuf Raza Gillani. Given that a concentrated campaign isunderway to ensure that due democratic process is freedfrom future army interference and Pakistan is stabilized in the face ofpersistent existentialist threats, decapitating the political system byremoving party heads is not smart. At best, it would lead to a vacuum filled byinexperienced fixers; at worst, a full-scale disintegration.
It would be easy to dismiss these rumors as the febrile grumblingsof a population that is unhappy with gaps in the government’s ability toprovide basic services, such as regular electricity and running water. Or even as anattempt to register disapproval with leaders seen as perpetually incumbent andunerringly incompetent. The disquiet is particularly unsurprising given that PresidentZardari enjoys all the general goodwill of a card shark at a friendly pokergame.
Except that these murmurs, like anything else in Pakistan, do notemanate without motive, and seldom exist in a vacuum. There is always anagenda, and a queue of vested interests. For instance, the first Benazir Bhuttogovernment saw similar grumbling, culminating in a full-blown ad campaign aboutcorruption in her ranks. Taken initially as a sign of people tired of waitingfor good governance, these particular machinations were bankrolled by noneother than Pakistan’s powerful Inter-Services Intelligence, a military offshootthat is not very answerable to civilian governments at the best of times.
These rumors could be the first signs of the military andintelligence services picking themselves up to interfere with the incumbentgovernment that, albeit flawed, is a genuine product of democracy. They haveprogressed to the point where local daily newspapers run regular commentary onthem, while their origins remain moot.
Then, there has been insidious but determined campaigns to embellishand reiterate accounts of corruption and incompetence during Nawaz Sharif’ssecond government before he was deposed by Musharraf’s coup in 1998. Again,these stories have no directly attributable source, but have become a regularfixture in the halls of power and beyond. So, cui bono?
The answer in this case seems to lead directly to the Presidencyoccupied by Zardari. Nawaz Sharif, as leader of the opposition, enjoys popularsupport. He used it to force the government’s hand to reinstate Chaudry Iftikharas Supreme Court Justice. He is counting on it to push for criminal proceedingsagainst Musharraf, and pressure the government to repeal the Constitution’s 17Amendment and Article 58 2b) of the 8 Amendment – both of which hobblethe office of the Prime Minister while giving sweeping powers to the President.It is very much in Zardari’s interest to dent Sharif’s political capital toensure parity.
Coming to similar conclusions, Sharif has recently spoken out inpublic against what he perceives as character assassination, warning thatcooperation with the PPP and the President would be rescinded in favor ofconfrontation if efforts to malign him did not stop within 48 hours. Thechallenge resonated within the establishment, and fleeting politicalcamaraderie has been restored through hurried diplomacy and shuttered meetings.
The issue here is not therumor-mongering and bickering itself, but the context. Pakistan isconcurrently fighting its pet Taliban in the North Western province, trying tonormalize relationships with India, dealing with destructive acts ofspontaneous self-combustion by extremists, keeping separatist Baluchistan frombecoming more cantankerous, overcoming electricity shortages and getting creakyindustrial apparatus producing again - all while trying to ensure that the democraticprocess continues apace. In the face of such daunting tasks, Machiavellian canardsare only grist for distraction’s mill. Lest we forget, the country has beenjovially skipping around on the thin line separating a troubled country from afailed state, and has not moved very far from the precipice.
In times like this, it is worth remembering there have always beentimes like these. True. In most counties, such skulduggery would merely be the banter inherent in messy politics. InPakistan’s current state of affairs, it portends upheaval because the processof democratic governance has all the current assurance of a tramp staggeringunder the cajolings of moonshine.