Springtime in the Arab world will be forever associated with revolution and civil unrest after the events of last year but in the West it means only one thing: tax season.
The rest of the world barely notices the marvels of nature reawakened for piles of receipts overflowing from shoeboxes and old plastic bags. Choruses of newly hatched chicks are drowned out by the thumping of calculator keys and anguished groans accompanying yet another spreadsheet that refuses to add up.
But even though most are hardly burdened with such trials in the UAE, reviewing the past year's finances when the days start to lengthen is a hard habit to break -- for me at least.
Last year should have been a great one for Middle East and North African economies. And it was for some of those that depend on oil and gas.
The average price of Brent crude hit a 150-year high last year of $111.26, up about 30 percent on 2010.
Never before in a century and a half of oil production has the annual average price ended above $100, according to records kept by the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
But, as is always the case with finances, the huge boost to revenues and the value of energy assets across the Middle East and North Africa is only half the picture.
Liabilities also hit new highs.
The world's thirst for oil might have grown at an average 1.2 percent, with demand rising by about 4 percent in China alone, but it was supply, or rather the fear of a lack of supply, that forced oil prices so high for so long last year.
It was the Arab Spring, chiefly the civil war in Libya, that sparked much of the panic.
In less than two weeks in February and March last year when fighting intensified across the country controlled for four decades by Colonel Muammar Gaddafi, the spot price of Brent crude rose by $15 as about 1.5 million barrels per day of Libyan oil were lost from the market.
While that rapid price rise reaped dividends for other oil producers, such as the UAE and Saudi Arabia, it wreaked havoc on most other economies in the region, especially the non-oil and gas exporters who ought to be among the Emirates' closest and most dependable trading partners.
A recent study of IMF data by Geopolicity, a UAE-based economic think tank, showed that the events of the Arab Spring led to more than $20.5 billion (Dh 75.2 bn) in losses to GDP in Libya, Egypt, Tunisia, Syria, Yemen and Bahrain last year alone.
The same data shows losses to public finances would be in the region of $35.2 bn for a total hit from the Arab Spring of more than $55 bn. Never mind the almost unquantifiable socio-economic losses to productivity and infrastructure, which would doubtless add up to tens of billions of dollars more across the same countries.
OPEC countries, meanwhile, are estimated by the International Energy Agency to have made oil revenues of about $1 trillion last year, with those in the Middle East accounting for about $700bn to $800bn of that total.
The liabilities associated with the Arab Spring, therefore, could easily amount to 10 percent of that regional total, wiping out a good third of the annual average gain they helped to build.
Back of the envelope accounting such as this may seem simplistic to macro economists but it does serve one important purpose.
The simple accounting of these headline gains and liabilities shows clearly that a dependence on too few sources of revenue leads to unhealthy fluctuations in markets and economies.
This is why projects such as Kizad, the UAE's Khalifa Industrial Zone Abu Dhabi -- a man-made island two-thirds the size of Singapore just off the capital's coast -- is so vital to the development of the nation and the region.
The giant international trade hub is designed to dilute the country's dependence on oil revenue and fuel the next stage of development to create opportunities for jobs and wealth across society.
A similar policy of diversification should be a priority for all the region's developing economies if springtime is to become a less taxing time of year in future.
For more top Middle East business news and comment visit www.thenational.ae
Our 2024 Coverage Needs You
It's Another Trump-Biden Showdown — And We Need Your Help
The Future Of Democracy Is At Stake
Our 2024 Coverage Needs You
Your Loyalty Means The World To Us
As Americans head to the polls in 2024, the very future of our country is at stake. At HuffPost, we believe that a free press is critical to creating well-informed voters. That's why our journalism is free for everyone, even though other newsrooms retreat behind expensive paywalls.
Our journalists will continue to cover the twists and turns during this historic presidential election. With your help, we'll bring you hard-hitting investigations, well-researched analysis and timely takes you can't find elsewhere. Reporting in this current political climate is a responsibility we do not take lightly, and we thank you for your support.
Contribute as little as $2 to keep our news free for all.
Can't afford to donate? Support HuffPost by creating a free account and log in while you read.
The 2024 election is heating up, and women's rights, health care, voting rights, and the very future of democracy are all at stake. Donald Trump will face Joe Biden in the most consequential vote of our time. And HuffPost will be there, covering every twist and turn. America's future hangs in the balance. Would you consider contributing to support our journalism and keep it free for all during this critical season?
HuffPost believes news should be accessible to everyone, regardless of their ability to pay for it. We rely on readers like you to help fund our work. Any contribution you can make — even as little as $2 — goes directly toward supporting the impactful journalism that we will continue to produce this year. Thank you for being part of our story.
Can't afford to donate? Support HuffPost by creating a free account and log in while you read.
It's official: Donald Trump will face Joe Biden this fall in the presidential election. As we face the most consequential presidential election of our time, HuffPost is committed to bringing you up-to-date, accurate news about the 2024 race. While other outlets have retreated behind paywalls, you can trust our news will stay free.
But we can't do it without your help. Reader funding is one of the key ways we support our newsroom. Would you consider making a donation to help fund our news during this critical time? Your contributions are vital to supporting a free press.
Contribute as little as $2 to keep our journalism free and accessible to all.
Can't afford to donate? Support HuffPost by creating a free account and log in while you read.
As Americans head to the polls in 2024, the very future of our country is at stake. At HuffPost, we believe that a free press is critical to creating well-informed voters. That's why our journalism is free for everyone, even though other newsrooms retreat behind expensive paywalls.
Our journalists will continue to cover the twists and turns during this historic presidential election. With your help, we'll bring you hard-hitting investigations, well-researched analysis and timely takes you can't find elsewhere. Reporting in this current political climate is a responsibility we do not take lightly, and we thank you for your support.
Contribute as little as $2 to keep our news free for all.
Can't afford to donate? Support HuffPost by creating a free account and log in while you read.
Dear HuffPost Reader
Thank you for your past contribution to HuffPost. We are sincerely grateful for readers like you who help us ensure that we can keep our journalism free for everyone.
The stakes are high this year, and our 2024 coverage could use continued support. Would you consider becoming a regular HuffPost contributor?
Dear HuffPost Reader
Thank you for your past contribution to HuffPost. We are sincerely grateful for readers like you who help us ensure that we can keep our journalism free for everyone.
The stakes are high this year, and our 2024 coverage could use continued support. If circumstances have changed since you last contributed, we hope you'll consider contributing to HuffPost once more.
Support HuffPostAlready contributed? Log in to hide these messages.