The BlogPoliticsCongressU.S. economy

No, Government Spending Really Isn't Going Up Right Now

Whenever I say that, I get emails from people who don't believe it, and not just complaining conservatives. Well, here are the numbers.
Jared Bernstein
By 

Fmr. Obama administration economist; CNBC and MSNBC contributor

Fmr. Obama administration economist; CNBC and MSNBC contributor
This post was published on the now-closed HuffPost Contributor platform. Contributors control their own work and posted freely to our site. If you need to flag this entry as abusive, send us an email.
FILE - In this Dec. 10, 2012 file photo, fog obscures the Capitol dome on Capitol Hill in Washington. Big tax increases will hit millions of families and businesses a lot sooner than many realize if Congress and the White House don't agree on a plan to avoid the year-end fiscal cliff of automatic tax increases and government spending cuts. In fact, they already have. More than 70 tax breaks enjoyed by individuals and businesses already expired at the beginning of this year. If Congress doesn't extend them, a typical middle class family could get a $4,000 tax hike when they file their 2012 returns next spring, according to a private analysis. At the same time, businesses could lose dozens of tax breaks they have enjoyed for years. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)
FILE - In this Dec. 10, 2012 file photo, fog obscures the Capitol dome on Capitol Hill in Washington. Big tax increases will hit millions of families and businesses a lot sooner than many realize if Congress and the White House don't agree on a plan to avoid the year-end fiscal cliff of automatic tax increases and government spending cuts. In fact, they already have. More than 70 tax breaks enjoyed by individuals and businesses already expired at the beginning of this year. If Congress doesn't extend them, a typical middle class family could get a $4,000 tax hike when they file their 2012 returns next spring, according to a private analysis. At the same time, businesses could lose dozens of tax breaks they have enjoyed for years. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)

On the Bill Maher show the other night, I pointed out that contrary to the talking point that government spending is spiraling out of control, it in fact went up only 0.6 percent, 2009-2012. Whenever I say that, I get emails from people who don't believe it, and not just complaining conservatives. Many progressives can't believe that's the case given the hair-on-fire rhetoric about Obama's alleged ongoing spending spree.

Well, here are the numbers, straight out of CBO. Spending went up a lot in the recession, as it always does, as automatic stabilizers like unemployment insurance and food stamps ratchet up, and the Recovery Act is in there too. But since then outlays have been flat, up less than 1 percent over the President's tenure, 2009-2012 (as I said on the show) and actually falling as a share of GDP (the figure includes CBOs forecast for 2013).

And no, I'm not bragging about this -- I think those two lines partially explain why this recovery has been such a slog: we hit back hard against the recession in 2009 and GDP started growing in real terms shortly thereafter. But we stopped too soon, certainly before the recovery reached most households.

2013-03-18-spending_gdp.png
Source: CBO

This post originally appeared at Jared Bernstein's On The Economy blog.

|
Submit a tip

Popular in the Community

Close

What's Hot