Be still my heart! Political reporters like me might actually get the story we've been dreaming of, complete with enough complexities to keep us in clover all year long.
As the Super Tuesday number crunching continues, we know this: the Democratic nomination will come down to demographics and superdelegates, the 796 elected officials and party elders who are free to vote for whomever they choose. With Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama so evenly matched in both, the stage is now set for a brokered convention. I'd put the odds at 75 percent that neither candidate arrives in Denver in late August with the 2,025 committed delegates needed to get nominated on the first ballot.
The order of battle across the country is now clear. It's Black and Green versus Brown and Gray. Obama has an overwhelming advantage among African-Americans and wealthier and better-educated voters who care about issues like the environment and political reform. Clinton is well ahead with Latinos and with Democrats over 60, many of whom are on fixed incomes and vote reliably. Gender is more evenly balanced, with Obama leading narrowly among men and Hillary narrowly among women.
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