Thirteen days is a long time in a political campaign. Having gone through nine elections myself, I know how unpredictable the final days are. Anything can happen.
In this campaign season, I am experiencing wild mood swings. One moment, when I scan the polls I'm convinced that nothing can stop Barack Obama from winning the race. He's so far ahead, according to every poll; it's only a question of how many states he will sweep.
The next minute I look at the polls again -- some have him ahead by only three points, others by 6, and a few by double digits. What about the margin of error? My mood plummets. He could lose.
What about those negative ads that keep repeating that he is a Muslim, a socialist, a pal of terrorists and a redistributor of wealth? Are the McCain/Palin attacks finding fertile ground?
I've been making phone calls in New Hampshire to strong Hillary supporters who still have not made up their minds. I explain that I was a fervent Hillary supporter but am now supporting Obama. I tell them what is at stake.
Some have moved over to Obama, others remain in doubt, and there are still some who give me a flat "no." They say they will either stay home or vote for McCain. Their reasons shock me. They repeat the negative statements that have infused the airwaves, almost word for word. "He's a Muslim; he's been hanging out with that Ayers fellow." One woman I spoke with is still furious at how the Democrats "treated Hillary and did not come to her defense."
I've only reached a miniscule number of voters. How many more are there out there?
Then there is the race question. Voters will not even admit to themselves, least of all to anyone else, that race might have something to do with how they will cast their vote. Yes, we're come a long way since Mayor Tom Bradley ran for Governor of California in 1982 and 1986 when the polls showed him ahead, but on election night, he lost. Race, like gender, remains a factor for many people. How many, and to what extent, we will never know.
My mood picks up again when I read about early voting. People are already lined up to vote for three to four hours in parts of Texas. In 2004 Republicans benefited most from early balloting by about 3.5 percentage points. This year, the speculation is that Democrats will be the beneficiaries by a considerable margin.
The other good news is the influx of new and young voters. In 2004 only 31 percent of voters aged 18 to 24 voted. Seventy-two percent of those over 65 showed up at the polls. Young people are not likely to catch up to their grandparents, but their participation in the primaries indicates that they will have a far larger turnout than in recent elections. The question is: will they be there in large enough numbers to make a difference?
The same holds true for African American and white women voters. There is no doubt that there will be an unprecedented turnout amongst African American voters. And the last time I looked, women were returning in significant numbers to the Obama/Biden ticket, after a brief spike of enthusiasm for Sarah Palin. The hope is that white women voters can compensate for Obama's deficit with white male voters.
My mood shifts again when I let myself get into the "anything can happen" mode. Either the McCain people will pull something out of the air that may be devastating to Obama, or either Obama or Biden will make a mistake.
I calmly tell myself that is not likely to happen. Obama has not made a significant mistake in almost two years, and he is unlikely to do so in the final days. The McCain/Palin team has been searching daily for a line of attack that will cripple Obama, and so far, they haven't found it. Even if they do, I tell myself, everyone is riveted on the economy and they are beginning to ignore negative politics as usual.
A global event could change the equation -- such as the capture of Osama Bin Laden or another terrorist attack. The side of me that sees the glass half full says that is not likely to happen now.
What I do know, from my own experience, is that nothing can be taken for granted in the final days before an election. The only tonic for pre-election manic depression is to work for the campaign for as many hours and days of the week as possible. At the very least, it's a distraction, and at the most -- it will help Obama win.
This was originally posted at Chelsea Green.
Madeleine M. Kunin is the former Governor of Vermont and was the state's first woman governor. She served as Ambassador to Switzerland for President Clinton, and was on the three-person panel that chose Al Gore to be Clinton's VP. She is the author of Pearls, Politics, and Power: How Women Can Win and Lead from Chelsea Green Publishing.