09/02/2008 08:53 pm ET Updated May 25, 2011

Bounce Update (Part II)

I spent a fair amount of time pouring over the national surveys out this week for a Convention Daily column that should appear later tonight or early tomorrow morning (I'll add a link when it does - column available here). And all things considered, I think we have more to learn about the impact of the conventions -- or at least from last week's convention -- from the "internals" in those surveys than from the daily twitches in the rolling-average tracking surveys.

Many, however, are taking note of the fact that both the Gallup Daily and Rasmussen Reports surveys reported Barack Obama gaining slightly to new highs today: 50% and 51%, respectively. Moreover, our national trend chart -- partly reflecting the daily tracking surveys and party the other national surveys released this week -- now shows the Obama number climbing to a new high (48.8%) and McCain steady at 43.6%.

It is tempting, very tempting, to read today's small moves in the daily tracking as a reaction to Sarah Palin. I just want to be a voice of caution: It may be no more than random noise around a plateau in a post-convention bounce for Obama. Keep in mind that there is always a 25% probability that on any given day, both daily tracking surveys will move in the same direction. The Republican convention is just now getting underway in earnest. Come this weekend, the numbers will likely take yet another turn.