11/02/2010 02:38 pm ET Updated May 25, 2011

Chet Edwards In Final Stretch

The early vote is in. The politicians are spinning like dervishes. All that's left now is for people to actually vote on election day.

Rep. Chet Edwards, D-Waco, has tried very hard to draw distinctions between himself and his Republican opponent, Bill Flores -- on everything from energy policy, to Social Security, to veterans care. His latest ad stresses those differences. But that may not be enough.

Political prognosticator and wunkerkind Nate Silver rates this race as 95.3% likely for Flores to unseat the Democrat who has survived numerous attempts by the GOP to take the seat. The latest poll of likely voters has Flores with a 12-point lead. Flores has stuck to the tactic of trying to link Edwards to Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Edwards has touted his independence.

One major bone of contention has been the "Stimulus" that Rep. Edwards voted for in 2009. Flores has said that law "failed" and should cost Edwards his job. Edwards has stated that the vote was the right thing to do and pointed to the biggest middle class tax cut in history for 95% of working families in the district.

Still, early voting totals show a turnout of nearly 1.7 million of Texas' 13.3 million registered voters turned out to vote early. That is a 656,000 increase over the 2006 midterm elections. We won't know if that spells doom for the Democrats or if it is a sign that likely voter poll models are broken until early Wednesday morning.