The international climate negotiations in Cancún, Mexico, have concluded, and despite the gloom-and-doom predictions that dominated the weeks and months leading up to Cancún, the Sixteenth Conference of the Parties (COP-16) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) must be judged a success. It represents a set of modest steps forward. Nothing more should be expected from this process.
As I said in my November 19th essay -- "Defining Success for Climate Negotiations in Cancún" -- the key challenge was to continue the process of constructing a sound foundation for meaningful, long-term global action (not necessarily some notion of immediate, highly-visible triumph). This was accomplished in Cancún.
The Cancún Agreements -- as the two key documents ("Outcome of the AWG-LCA" and "Outcome of the AWG-KP") are called -- do just what was needed, namely build on the structure of the Copenhagen Accord with a balanced package that takes meaningful steps toward implementing the key elements of the Accord. The delegates in Cancún succeeded in writing and adopting an agreement that assembles pledges of greenhouse gas (GHG) cuts by all of the world's major economies, launches a fund to help the most vulnerable countries, and avoids some political landmines that could have blown up the talks, namely decisions on the (highly uncertain) future of the Kyoto Protocol.
I begin by assessing the key elements of the Cancún Agreements. Then I examine whether the incremental steps forward represented by the Agreements should really be characterized as a success. And finally I ask why the negotiations in Cancún led to the outcome they did.
Assessing the Key Elements of the Cancún Agreements
First, the Cancún Agreements provide emission mitigation targets and actions (submitted under the Copenhagen Accord) for approximately 80 countries -- including, importantly, all of the major economies. In this way, the Agreements codify pledges by the world's largest emitters -- including China, the United States, the European Union, India, and Brazil -- to various targets and actions to reduce emissions by 2020. The distinction between Annex I and non-Annex I countries is blurred even more in the Cancún Agreements than it was in the Copenhagen Accord -- another step in the right direction!
Also, for the first time, countries agreed -- under an official UN agreement -- to keep temperature increases below a global average of 2 degrees Celsius. It brings these aspirations, as well as the emission pledges of individual countries, into the formal UN process for the first time, essentially by adopting the Copenhagen Accord one year after it was "noted" at COP-15. (There's also an abundance of politically-correct and in some cases downright silly window dressing in the Cancún Agreements, including repetitive references to various interpretations of the UNFCCC's principle of "common but differentiated responsibilities," as well as some discussion of examining a 1.5 C target.)
However, despite even the 2 degree (450 ppm concentration) aspirational target, the Agreements are no more stringent that the collection of submissions made under last year's Copenhagen Accord. But, as Michael Levi (Council on Foreign Relations) has pointed out, the Cancún Agreement "should be applauded not because it solves everything, but because it chooses not to." As my colleagues and I have repeatedly emphasized in our work within the Harvard Project on Climate Agreements, many of the most important initiatives for addressing climate change will occur outside of the United Nations process (despite the centrality of that process).
Second, the Agreements elaborate on the mechanisms for monitoring and verification that were laid out in last year's Accord. Importantly, these now include "international consultation and analysis" of developing country mitigation actions. Countries will report their GHG inventories to an independent panel of experts, which will monitor and verify reports of emissions cuts and actions.
Third, the Agreements establish a so-called Green Climate Fund to deliver financing for mitigation and adaptation. Importantly, the Agreements name the World Bank as the interim trustee of the Fund, despite objections from many developing countries, and create an oversight board, half of which consists of donor nation representatives. In addition, the Agreements establish a goal by developed countries to mobilize $100 billion annually by 2020 to support mitigation and adaptation in developing countries, a funding target which would include public and private resources (that is, carbon markets and private finance), bilateral and multilateral flows, as well as the Green Climate Fund.
Whether the resources ever grow to the size laid out in Copenhagen and Cancún will depend upon the individual actions of the wealthy nations of the world. However, it's interesting that the section in the Cancún Agreements on adaptation comes before the section on mitigation. Things have come a long way since the days when economists were alone in calling for attention to adaptation (along with mitigation). I recall when economists were therefore accused of throwing in the towel, and not caring about the environment!
Fourth, the Agreements advance initiatives on tropical forest protection (or, in UN parlance, Reduced Deforestation and Forest Degradation, or REDD+), by taking the next steps toward establishing a program in which the wealthy countries can help prevent deforestation in poor countries, possibly working through market mechanisms (despite exhortations from Bolivia and other leftist and left-leaning countries to keep the reach of "global capitalism" out of the policy mix).
Fifth, the Cancún Agreements establish a structure to assess the needs and policies for the transfer to developing countries of technologies for clean energy and adaptation to climate change, and a - as yet undefined - Climate Technology Center and Network to construct a global network to match technology suppliers with technology needs.
In addition, the Agreements endorse an ongoing role for the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and other "market-based mechanisms;" indicate that carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects should be eligible for carbon credits in the CDM; and offer some special recognition of the situations of the Central and Eastern European countries (previously known in UN parlance as "parties undergoing transition to a market economy") and Turkey, all of which are Annex I countries under the Kyoto Protocol, but decidedly poorer than the other members of that group of industrialized nations.
That's the 32-page Cancún Agreements in a nutshell. As a member of one of the leading national delegations said to me in Cancún a few hours after the talks had concluded, "It's incremental progress, but progress nonetheless."
Are Such Incremental Steps Really a Success?
Recall from my November 19th essay that the best goal for the Cancún climate talks was to make real progress on a sound foundation for meaningful, long-term global action. I said that because of some fundamental scientific and economic realities, which I will not repeat here. In that previous essay, I also described "What Would Constitute Real Progress in Cancún" A quick comparison of my criteria from November 19th and the Cancún Agreements of December 11th tells me that the outcome of Cancún should be judged a success.
My first criterion of success was that the UNFCCC should embrace the parallel processes that are carrying out multilateral discussions on climate change policy: the Major Economies Forum or MEF (a multilateral venue for discussions - but not negotiations - among the most important emitting countries); the G20 (periodic meetings of the finance ministers - and sometimes heads of government - of the twenty largest economies in the world); and various other multilateral and bilateral organizations and discussions. Although the previous leadership of the UNFCCC seemed to view the MEF, the G20, and most other non-UNFCCC forums as competition - indeed, as a threat, the UNFCCC's new leadership under Executive Secretary Christiana Figueres displays a positive and pragmatic attitude toward these parallel processes.
My second criterion was that the three major negotiating tracks be consolidated. These tracks were: first, the UNFCCC's KP track (negotiating national targets for a possible second commitment period - post-2012 - for the Kyoto Protocol); second, the LCA track (the UNFCCC's negotiation track for Long-term Cooperative Action, that is, a future international agreement of undefined nature); and third, the Copenhagen Accord, negotiated and noted at COP-15 in Copenhagen, Denmark, in December, 2009.
Permit me, please, to quote from my November 19th essay:
Consolidating these three tracks into two tracks (or better yet, one track) would be another significant step forward. One way this could happen would be for the LCA negotiations to take as their point of departure the existing Copenhagen Accord, which itself marked an important step forward by blurring for the first time (although not eliminating) the unproductive and utterly obsolete distinction in the Kyoto Protocol between Annex I and non-Annex I countries. (Note that more than 50 non-Annex I countries now have greater per capita income than the poorest of the Annex I countries.)
This is precisely what has happened. The Cancún Agreements -- the product of the LCA-track negotiations - build directly, explicitly, and comprehensively on the Copenhagen Accord. The two tracks have become one.
Alas, the KP track remains, and a decision on a potential second commitment period (post-2012) for the Kyoto Protocol has been punted to COP-17 in Durban, South Africa, in December, 2011. It is difficult to picture a meaningful - or any - second commitment period for the Kyoto Protocol, with the United States out of that picture, and with Japan and Russia having stated unequivocally that they will not take up another set of targets, and with Australia and Canada also unlikely to participate. But note that this issue will have to be confronted in Durban a year from now. With the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol ending in 2012, COP-17 will provide the last opportunity for punting that contentious issue.
If you agree with my view - which I have written about in many previous blog posts - that the Kyoto Protocol is fundamentally flawed and that the Protocol's dichotomous distinction between Annex I and non-Annex I countries is the heavy anchor that slows meaningful progress on international climate policy, then you will not consider it bad news that a second commitment period for the Protocol is looking less and less likely. On the other hand, you will, in that case, share my disappointment that the issue has been punted (recognizing, however, that had it not been punted, the Cancún meetings could have collapsed amidst acrimony and recriminations).
I also wrote in my November 19th post:
The UNFCCC principle of "common but differentiated responsibilities" could be made meaningful through the dual principles that: all countries recognize their historic emissions (read, the industrialized world); and all countries are responsible for their future emissions (think of those rapidly-growing emerging economies).
The Cancún Agreements do this by recognizing directly and explicitly these dual principles. This can represent the next step in a movement beyond what has become the "QWERTY keyboard" (that is, unproductive path dependence) of international climate policy: the distinction in the Kyoto Protocol between the small set of Annex I countries with quantitative targets, and the majority of countries in the world with no responsibilities.
A variety of policy architectures can build on these dual principles and make them operational, bridging the political divide which exists between the industrialized and the developing world. (At the Harvard Project on Climate Agreements, we have developed a variety of architectural proposals that could make these dual principles operational. See, for example: "Global Climate Policy Architecture and Political Feasibility: Specific Formulas and Emission Targets to Attain 460 PPM CO2 Concentrations" by Valentina Bosetti and Jeffrey Frankel; and "Three Key Elements of Post-2012 International Climate Policy Architecture" by Sheila M. Olmstead and Robert N. Stavins.)
My third criterion for success was movement forward with specific, narrow agreements, such as on: REDD+ (Reduced Deforestation and Forest Degradation, plus enhancement of forest carbon stocks); finance; and technology. Such movement forward has, in fact, occurred in all three domains in the Cancún Agreements, as I described above.
My fourth criterion for success was keyed to whether the parties to the Cancún meetings could maintain sensible expectations and thereby develop effective plans. This they have done. The key question was not what Cancún accomplishes in the short-term, but whether it helps put the world in a better position five, ten, and twenty years from now in regard to an effective long-term path of action to address the threat of global climate change.
Despite the fact that some advocacy groups - and for that matter, some nations - are no doubt disappointed with the outcome of Cancún, I think it is fair to say that this final criterion for success was satisfied: the Cancún Agreements can help put the world on a path toward an effective long-term plan of meaningful action.
Why Did Cancún Succeed?
If you agree with my assessment of success in Cancún, then a reasonable question to ask is why did the Cancún talks produce this successful outcome, particularly in contrast with what many people consider a less successful outcome of the Copenhagen talks last year. To address this question, let me expand on some points made in an insightful essay by Elliot Diringer, Vice President for International Strategies at the Pew Center on Global Climate Change.
First, the Mexican government through careful and methodical planning over the past year prepared itself well, and displayed tremendous skill in presiding over the talks. Reflect, if you will, on the brilliant way in which Mexican Minister of Foreign Affairs, Patricia Espinosa, who served as President of COP-16, took note of the objections of Bolivia (and, at times, several other leftist and left-leaning Latin American countries, known collectively as the ALBA states), and then simply ruled that the support of 193 other countries meant that "consensus" had been achieved and the Cancún Agreements had been adopted by the Conference. At a critical moment, Ms. Espinosa noted that "consensus does not mean unanimity," and that was that!
Compare this with the unfortunate chairing of COP-15 in Copenhagen by Danish Prime Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen, who allowed the objections by a similar same small set of five relatively unimportant countries (Bolivia, Cuba, Nicaragua, Sudan, and Venezuela) to derail those talks, which hence "noted," but did not adopt the Copenhagen Accord in December, 2009.
The Mexicans were also adept at facilitating small groups of countries to meet to advance productive negotiations, but made sure that any countries could join those meetings if they wanted. Hence, negotiations moved forward, but without the sense of exclusivity that alienated so many small (and some large) countries in Copenhagen.
The key role played by the Mexican leadership is consistent with the notion of Mexico as one of a small number of "bridging states," which can play particularly important roles in this process because of their credibility in the two worlds that engage in divisive debates in the United Nations: the developed world and the developing world. We have examined this in our recent Harvard Project on Climate Agreements Issue Brief, Institutions for International Climate Governance. Mexico, along with Korea, are members of the OECD, but are also non-Annex I countries under the Kyoto Protocol. This gives Mexico -- and gave Minister Espinosa -- a degree of credibility across the diverse constituencies in the UNFCCC that was simply not enjoyed by Danish Prime Minister Rasmussen at COP-15 last year.
Second, China and the United States set the tone for many other countries by dealing with each other with civility, if not always with understanding. This contrasts with the tone that dominated in and after Copenhagen, when finger-pointing at Copenhagen between these two giants of the international stage led to a blame-game in the months after the Copenhagen talks.
As Elliot Diringer wrote, they may have recognized that "the best way to avoid blame was to avoid failure." Beyond this, although the credit must go to both countries, the change from last year in the conduct of the Chinese delegation was striking. It appeared, as Coral Davenport wrote in The National Journal, that the Chinese were on a "charm offensive." Working in Cancún on behalf of the Harvard Project on Climate Agreements, I can personally vouch for the tremendous increase from previous years in the openness of members of the official Chinese delegation, as well as the many Chinese members of civil society who attended the Cancún meetings.
Third, a worry hovered over the Cancún meetings that an outcome perceived to be failure would lead to the demise of the UN process itself. Since many nations (in particular, developing countries, which made up the vast majority of the 194 countries present in Cancún) very much want the United Nations and the UNFCCC to remain the core of international negotiations on climate change, that implicit threat provided a strong incentive for many countries to make sure that the Cancún talks did not "fail."
Fourth, under the pragmatic leadership of UNFCCC Executive Secretary Christiana Figueres, realism may have finally eclipsed idealism in these international negotiations. Many observers have noted that many delegations - and probably most civil society NGO participants - at the previous COPs have misled themselves into thinking that ambitious cuts in greenhouse gases (GHGs) were forthcoming that could guarantee achievement of the 450 ppm/2 degrees C cap.
The acceptance of the Cancún Agreements suggests that the international diplomatic community may now recognize that incremental steps in the right direction are better than acrimonious debates over unachievable targets. This harkens back to what I characterized prior to COP-16 as the key challenge facing the negotiators: to continue the process of constructing a sound foundation for meaningful, long-term global action. In my view, this was accomplished in Cancún.