THE BLOG
03/18/2010 05:12 am ET Updated May 25, 2011

Marco Rubio Will Defeat Charlie Crist in the 2010 GOP Senate Primary

[Originally posted at my blog Senate Guru.]

First, conservative Republican former state House Speaker Marco Rubio handed Charlie Crist embarrassment after embarrassment by obliterating Crist in numerous straw polls across Florida, confirming that Florida's conservative Republican base overwhelmingly prefers Rubio to Crist as their nominee, no matter what the DC GOP establishment and NRSC might try to dictate to Florida Republicans.

Second, Rubio shattered expectations by raising about a million dollars in the third fundraising quarter of 2009, demonstrating his campaign's viability.

And now, them polls are tightening:

Rasmussen Reports

August 2009October 2009
Charlie Crist

53

49

Marco Rubio

31

35

Crist Lead

22

14

In just two months, according to Rasmussen, Rubio cut Crist's lead by about one-third and pulled Crist under 50%. But maybe that's not enough data points for you.

Quinnipiac University

February 2009April 2009June 2009August 2009October 2009
Charlie Crist

53

54

54

55

50

Marco Rubio

3

8

23

26

35

Crist Lead

50

46

31

29

15

According to Quinnipiac, in two-month intervals between February and October, Crist's lead over Rubio has sunk from 50 to 46 to 31 to 29 to 15.

Crist should be awfully worried. And he is. He is going to lose the 2010 Republican Senate primary to conservative underdog Marco Rubio.