Hillary Clinton needs to win 65.3 percent of the remaining pledged delegates to avoid a contested Democratic convention at which she and Bernie Sanders separately plead their cases to the Party's 714 unpledged "super-delegates."
Democratic candidates in 2016 need 2,383 pledged delegates to win the Party's nomination via pledged delegates alone. Barring Senator Sanders dropping out of the Democratic race prior to the New York primary, it is virtually impossible for Secretary Clinton to hit that mark.
Here are Clinton's current percentages of the total vote in upcoming primary states, according to the most recent polling available in each state:
- California: 47
- Maryland: 55
- New York: 53
- Pennsylvania: 49
Recent polling isn't available in any of the other upcoming primaries and caucuses.
FiveThirtyEight.com has routinely referred to Maryland -- where Secretary Clinton is presently capturing 55 percent of the prospective vote -- as her best remaining state.
Because the Democrats award their delegates proportionally in each state -- roughly if not perfectly matching the popular vote in individual primary and caucus votes -- the numbers above suggest Clinton's only hope to receive 65.3 percent of the remaining Democratic delegates is for Bernie Sanders to end his presidential bid immediately.
Nationally, the three most recent polls give Clinton the following positioning relative to Sanders: behind by 1 point; ahead by 1 point; and behind by two points.
Senator Sanders is unlikely to drop out of a primary race he is currently winning according to the most recent national polling.
The question, given the above data, is not what percentage Sanders or Clinton will win by in upcoming states, but rather how strong a case each candidate will be able to make to super-delegates, who don't cast any votes until the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia -- the media's decision to pretend that they do, against the express direction of the Democratic National Committee, notwithstanding.
Right now here's Senator Sanders' case to super-delegates, which the media has routinely described as weak:
- He beats every remaining GOP candidate by more than Clinton, per head-to-head national polling.
Clinton's case to super-delegates can be summed up as follows:
- She is exceedingly well-qualified for the position, though Senator Sanders is also qualified.
There are likely other arguments for both candidates, but these appear to be the predominant ones.
Few can doubt that, from a practical standpoint, the stronger case at a contested Democratic Convention lies with Sanders -- given that the purpose of any Party-sponsored primary race is to find the candidate most likely to win in a general election -- but nearly 100 percent of mainstream media pundits predict that not only will Sanders not win a majority of super-delegates, but also that his case to them (above) is unlikely to sway more than fifty of the 714 total super-delegates (7 percent).
If the two competing arguments above look like a 93 percent-to-7 percent Clinton win to you, congratulations -- you don't struggle with cognitive dissonance and the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia this July is likely to make perfect sense to you.
Seth Abramson is the Series Editor for Best American Experimental Writing (Wesleyan University) and the author, most recently, of DATA (BlazeVOX, 2016).