It is our hope that this statement will be met with a bit of thankfulness: we are not going to predict the number of seats the Democrats will lose in November, nor are we going to give you the magical formula for making that prediction. We can't because there isn't one. What we can say is that voters are angry and that is usually a bad sign for the party in power.
Before we examine the political situation, here's a quick snapshot of the opinion landscape as of 6 A.M. on Monday, May 3rd:
- If anyone needed more evidence that the issue environment is shifting rapidly, the last 24 hours has surely provided it. We have seen the gulf oil spill move from a serious issue to a potentially catastrophic event. On Saturday night, Times Square was evacuated in the face of a failed car bomb attempt. On Sunday, Secretary Napolitano said this was a "potential terrorist attack" and would be treated very, very seriously. The implications are clear for 2010: just when you think you have a good handle on the issue environment, you probably don't.
As for the November elections, here is what we know. Let's start with the good news for Republicans:
- We are in one of the longest sustained periods of voter dissatisfaction in modern history. Except for a few weeks in the spring of 2009, perceptions of the direction of the country have been strongly "wrong track" since the invasion of Iraq in 2003. That is seven years. The only comparable period is 1973-1983. This helps explain why we are in the middle of a third successive "change" election. Moreover, trust in government to do what is right is at an all-time low. In a Pew Research Center poll last month, less than one fourth (22%) of respondents said they could trust government most of the time. This is one of the lowest percentages in more than 50 years.
On the other hand, there is some good news for Democrats (though not nearly as much):
- The current issue frame is decidedly negative for Republican candidates. So long as the dialogue in Washington is focused on financial regulation and immigration reform, Republicans will be on the defensive. Add to that a potential terrorist attack and things are aligned for the President to demonstrate leadership. Ultimately, this may only be a short-term situation but, for the time being, the Democrats will benefit.
- The economy is slowly improving. The economy grew by 3.2% during the first quarter of 2010. That makes three straight positive growth quarters. This pretty much signals that the recession ended in the spring of 2009. However, voter perception has not caught up with reality and until there is meaningful job growth the economy will continue to be a huge problem for Democrats.
- The WH and the Democrats had an early warning bell this year - unlike 1994 - and they are mounting a counterattack. Just because they have been alerted to the approaching iceberg doesn't mean the current won't steer the Democrats right into it anyway, but the DNC's new campaign shows that they are not going to go down without a fight. Obama's trip to the mid-west this week was a step in the right direction in terms of addressing voter frustrations. We remain skeptical that new voter enlistment efforts will work in a non-Presidential year but it is worth a try.
- Obama's approval rating is moribund but not toxic (yet). The President's approval rating is somewhere around 48%, depending on whose tally you are looking at. His disapproval is around 47-48%. If his approval gets back to or above 50% it will be a big help to Democrats in the fall.
There are two landmines that Republicans will need to navigate in the months ahead.
- First is the anti-incumbent sentiment that has gripped this electorate. Again, this helps Republicans from a big picture perspective because Democrats are in power, but it also suggests that voters aren't happy with either party, setting up a situation where it won't be enough for Republicans to be merely "not Democrats." And, to be honest, it is probably a good thing for both the country and Republicans themselves that they will be forced to articulate an alternative vision and set of policies. Of course, history shows that anti-incumbent sentiments do tend to help the opposition party, as this chart demonstrates: