07/09/2014 10:38 am ET Updated Dec 06, 2017

Emmy Nominations Predictions: True Detective and Orange Is the New Black Will Lead Among New TV Shows


Look for True Detective, Brooklyn Nine-Nine and Orange is the New Black to be among the new TV series breaking into the Emmy derby in a big way when nominations are announced on Thursday morning.

True Detective gets 7-to-2 odds to win Best Drama Series, according to the odds set by the predictions of 14 experts from TV Guide, The Huffington Post, USA Today and other top media participating at Gold Derby. However, the category's defending champ Breaking Bad has much better odds to triumph (2/1), being the No. 1 pick of 12 of the pundits. See how the experts rank all contenders here.

2014-07-09-contenders.jpgBoth shows are guaranteed bids for best drama, as are House of Cards (15/2) and Game of Thrones (9/1), but there's strong debate over which programs will get the remaining two slots in the category. Three of last year's nominees are vulnerable -- Mad Men (14/1), Downton Abbey (33/1) and Homeland (100/1) -- and two new contenders are angling for inclusion: The Americans and Masters of Sex. Past nominee The Good Wife was snubbed last year, but it could rally thanks to its recent creative comeback.

Orange is the New Black (15/2) and Brooklyn Nine-Nine (12/1) will be nominated for Best Comedy Series, but Modern Family has the best odds (9/4) to prevail again. So far it has never lost the race and will tie the record (five wins) set by Frasier if it repeats.

Modern Family is backed by 10 experts: Robert Bianco (USA Today), Lynn Elber (Associated Press), Joyce Eng (TV Guide), Scott Feinberg (Hollywood Reporter), Matthew Jacobs (HuffPost), Matt Roush (TV Guide Magazine), Glenn Whipp (Modern Family) plus Paul Sheehan and me for Gold Derby. Three pundits pick Veep: Steve Pond (The Wrap), Lynette Rice (People) and Anne Thompson (Thompson on Hollywood/Indiewire). AP scribe Mike Cidoni picks Orange Is the New Black and freelancer Ken Tucker backs The Big Bang Theory.

Louie (15/2) is also expected to make the cut, but last year's nominee Girls now ranks seventh in a six-show race. Silicon Valley is considered a possible threat.

Last year's winners of Best Comedy Actor and Actress Jim Parsons (The Big Bang Theory) and Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Veep) are given strong odds to repeat.

The most fierce Emmy competition is over in the drama slots where recent Oscar champ Matthew McConaughey (True Detective) takes on three-time Emmy victor Bryan Cranston (Breaking Bad) and two-time Oscar winner Kevin Spacey (House of Cards). Experts give McConaughey the edge with 9-to-4 odds.

Recent Golden Globe winner Robin Wright (House of Cards) get the best odds (12/5) to win Best Drama Actress, but she faces tough competition from Julianna Margulies (The Good Wife), Claire Danes (Homeland), Kerry Washington (Scandal), Tatiana Maslany (Orphan Black) and Keri Russell (The Americans). See the full rundown here and compare to rival predictions by Gold Derby's editors and site users.

Photos: Orange Is the New Black (Netflix), Brooklyn Nine-Nine (Fox), True Detective (HBO)